2024 NOAA hurricane season forecast predicts highest number of hurricanes, named storms ever

Brian Broom, Mississippi Clarion Ledger

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its forecast for the 2024 hurricane season and the predictions don't look good for Mississippi and other states affected by hurricanes.

"This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways, based on our data and models with the El Niño, La Niña playing out a significant role," said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad in a Thursday press conference. "Of note, the forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook.

"The key this year, as in any year, is to get prepared and stay prepared. It's the best way to reduce risks, especially the risks of potential loss of life."

According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, there is a 49% chance of a La Niña weather pattern forming in June through August and a 69% chance of development during July through September. This aligns with some of the historically most active hurricane months.

According to NOAA, a La Niña weather pattern tends to lessen wind shear, making conditions more favorable for hurricanes to develop and strengthen.

"We know the development of La Niña can lead to weaker easterly trade winds and below average vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic Ocean," Spinrad said. "This type of environment can be more conducive to tropical cyclone development."

Those conditions combined with record warm temperatures in the Atlantic and a prediction of above average temperatures during the peak months for hurricanes, August through October, have led to forecasters predicting 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes rated at Category 3 to Category 5.

NOAA Atlantic hurricane forecast by the numbers

  • 85% chance of above average season

  • 10% chance of near average season

  • 5% chance of below average season

  • 17-25 named storms with sustained winds of at least 39 mph

  • 8-13 hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 74 mph

  • 4-7 major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

2024 Atlantic hurricane names

  • Alberto

  • Beryl

  • Chris

  • Debby

  • Ernesto

  • Francine

  • Gordon

  • Helene

  • Isaac

  • Joyce

  • Kirk

  • Leslie

  • Milton

  • Nadine

  • Oscar

  • Patty

  • Rafael

  • Sara

  • Tony

  • Valerie

  • William

Hurricane Tracker 2024

Do you have a story idea? Contact Brian Broom at 601-961-7225 or bbroom@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Hurricane season 2024 forecast record predictions

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