2024 hurricane season: More storms expected as La Niña and warm waters combine
ORLANDO — Two months ahead of the June 1 start date of hurricane season, a leading seasonal forecast is predicting an unusually active period for storms as abnormally warm sea-surface temperatures and La Niña gain dominion over the Atlantic basin.
AccuWeather, which released its seasonal forecast Wednesday morning, is predicting 20 to 24 named storms, with eight to 12 of those storms becoming hurricanes. Four to seven of those hurricanes are forecast to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or higher.
An average hurricane season has 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes. Three of those hurricanes typically become major hurricanes.
AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva said multiple factors, including weather patterns in Africa, could make 2024 a “very active and potentially explosive season.”
Hurricane season: High chances La Niña will be here for peak season. That's not good news
“When you look back at historical sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic’s main development region, recent average water temperatures jump off the chart,” said AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jon Porter in a news release.
“This is a very concerning development, considering this part of the Atlantic Ocean is where more than 80% of the storms form which go on to become tropical storms or hurricanes.”
Early seasonal forecasts are challenging because of something called the “spring predictability barrier,” which can obscure how the Pacific Ocean is going to behave once spring and summer fully arrive.
Fox Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said there are subtleties in the atmosphere that are hard to see as the seasons shift, making any forecast earlier than about May have lower confidence.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is scheduled to release its hurricane forecast in late May. Colorado State University is expected to release its forecast April 4.
But the signals of an emerging La Niña and the warm waters are indicators that point to an above-normal season.
Hurricane whisperer: El Niño battled warm ocean temperatures during the above average 2023 hurricane season
Officials gathered in Orlando at the National Hurricane Conference this week are normally mum on predictions this early in the season, but have hinted they believe this may be a highly active year despite no official federal forecast.
“Last year we had the warm water, but we had El Niño deflecting the storms,” Norcross said.
El Niño is expected to give way to a neutral pattern before La Niña emerges in July or August as the height of hurricane season approaches.
El Niño has a reputation of creating strong wind shear that works to shred hurricanes, diminishing their threat. La Niña calms wind shear, creating a friendlier environment for storms to form.
Kimberly Miller is a veteran journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate and how growth affects South Florida's environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Help support our local journalism, subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: 2024 Florida hurricane season AccuWeather forecast active, more storms
