2023 MLB trade deadline: The 5 bubble teams that will decide whether this year’s deadline pops
The clock is ticking until MLB’s trade deadline. Tuesday marks one week before the Aug. 1 cutoff, when teams will have to stop wheeling and dealing, theoretically setting their courses for the rest of the season. There’s a lot of space between pure buyers and sellers, but some teams on the cusp of contention will have to make fairly binary decisions about whether to add to or subtract from their 2023 squads.
Whether it’s a product of the expanded postseason that took effect last year or simply a quirk of how things have shaken out this summer, the upcoming trade deadline is going to revolve around those bubble teams. Entering Tuesday’s games, 19 teams are either holding a playoff spot or within five games of one, and that doesn’t include the San Diego Padres, New York Mets and Seattle Mariners.
The few teams known to be sellers — the St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates — can’t meet all the deadline’s demand on their own. If next Tuesday is going to whip up the usual frenzy of big names on the move, it will flow from some teams changing their tunes on their chances. As one general manager whose team remains on the fence told ESPN’s Jeff Passan, “This is the best sellers' market of my lifetime. I almost wish I could commit to it and take advantage.”
That’s the type of leverage we’re looking at for the clubs still deciding whether to hold their stars or ship them out to more surefire contenders.
Here are the five teams with the most momentous decisions to make, at least in terms of the deadline’s buzz levels.
Los Angeles Angels
Postseason odds (via FanGraphs): 13.6%
What hinges on their decision? Perhaps you’ve heard of Shohei Ohtani
On pace for a 58-homer, 10.7-WAR season at the moment, the rest of Ohtani’s 2023 will be a three-ring circus that transcends baseball. The only question is whether the Angels are committed to hosting it. Most indications, especially after a recent sweep of the New York Yankees, say that team owner Arte Moreno will hold on to hope of a breakthrough bid at October and, relatedly, of re-signing Ohtani when he hits free agency this winter.
The value calculus of the next week is not actually complicated, but it remains an almost impossible choice. If the Angels stand pat with Ohtani, they have a small but real chance of finally making the playoffs. Either way, he’ll enter the open market having politely but repeatedly expressed a desire to win — which has not been the Angels’ strong suit.
An Ohtani departure this winter would leave the Angels with only middling draft pick compensation. An Ohtani trade this week would torpedo the 2023 season, fan interest and seemingly any chance of his return in 2024, but it would give GM Perry Minasian a chance to secure multiple young players for the future. It’s hard to envision an Ohtani trade that wouldn’t include at least two players with more industry value than the draft pick compensation from the first scenario.
However you think about that choice, it will be momentous. And if the Angels fall further off the pace or signal an intent to move their two-way superstar, get ready for a blockbuster.
New York Mets
Postseason odds: 16.2%
What hinges on their decision? Millions and millions of dollars, useful hitters such as Tommy Pham and Mark Canha, and potentially the twilight years of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer
Team owner Steve Cohen said during a news conference a month ago that if the Mets did not get better, they would not be adding at the deadline, despite an all-time-record payroll. They have not improved their position, so you can logically make the leap. With plenty of stars still under contract for 2024 and Cohen preaching patience, the Mets might be the clearest example of a team ready to punt on 2023 but not totally rebuild.
That makes some significant contributors obvious trade candidates. Pham and Canha, veteran outfielders, are each on expiring contracts. Pham has been one of baseball’s 20 best hitters over the past two months, while Canha offers on-base ability and positional flexibility. David Robertson, the experienced closer on a one-year deal, is running a 2.08 ERA and will be a sought-after arm for the second deadline in a row. Fellow relievers Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley will also pique some contenders’ interest.
Moving most or all of those players, none of whom is committed beyond 2023, would represent the most likely path for the Mets. A bigger development would be moving Verlander or Scherzer, the twin aces who have wavered in Queens this season. They each make $43.3 million per year and stand to make that again in 2024. And they each have no-trade protection.
Verlander, whose strikeout rate is down precipitously, has nonetheless looked like the more consistent of the two. He has a 2.72 ERA since June 1, with his curveball clicking, and has taken on a more prominent role recently. The likelihood of a deal getting done seems slim, but the narrow market might push a creative contender to make a pitch.
San Diego Padres
Postseason odds: 31.4%
What hinges on their decision? Blake Snell and Josh Hader, should they be made available, would instantly become the best starting pitcher and best reliever on the market.
A season after swinging the monster trade for Juan Soto and surging to the NLCS, GM A.J. Preller and the Padres clearly do not want to give up on one of their three swings at a title with Soto under contract. In the demolition derby that is the NL wild-card race, the Padres still have a puncher’s chance at October, despite a 48-53 record, so they might be the most suspenseful bubble team of the bunch.
Dealing Snell and/or Hader could help this team fill in the black holes beyond the expensive stars if they’re ready to prioritize 2024, but Passan reports that other clubs have been rebuffed when asking about the two pitchers. Perhaps a middle ground could involve flipping one of Snell, Hader or starter (with reliever experience) Seth Lugo for controllable help while keeping the others.
Always active, Preller is sure to be seeking upgrades for the back of the lineup, whether that’s the 2023 version or its 2024 sequel. The Padres’ No. 1 through No. 6 hitters have baseball’s eighth-best wRC+, a park-adjusted hitting metric, while their No. 7 through No. 9 hitters are 23rd. That back third of the order is also dead last in batting average, which isn’t a stat worth obsessing about in and of itself, but it tracks with the Padres’ infuriating inability to drive in runners who reach base.
The Padres’ range of outcomes quite literally span from the deadline’s most prominent sellers to “traded every notable prospect they had for Ohtani.” Keep an eye on San Diego.
Chicago Cubs
Postseason odds: 13.7%
What hinges on their decision? Their rebuild and plenty of teams’ hopes of securing a useful center fielder or top-line starting pitcher.
While they have not come out to declare it, expect the Cubs to follow the rival Cardinals into the seller lane. Despite holding the only positive run differential in the NL Central, the math is against the Cubs, especially as the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds keep adding newly healthy stars, top prospects or both into their mix.
The front office understandably wishes that Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman — two very successful free-agent signings — had amounted to a playoff contender instead of pole position at the 2023 sellers table, but the situation calls for shipping those two talents elsewhere. Getting over the hump in the NL Central will require more robust talent than this season’s team has, not just a do-over, so some star rental marketing is in order.
Both Bellinger and Stroman are mortal locks for free agency this winter (technically, they each have options, which they're expected to decline), and both are in the midst of excellent seasons. In the (very realistic) scenario in which the Padres and Angels decide to hold or buy, the Cubs could have the best player available on both the hitting and pitching markets, which would be an enviable position.
Boston Red Sox
Postseason odds: 28.2%
What hinges on their decision? Some untold number of events several steps away in the butterfly effect
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before during Chaim Bloom’s tenure: Boston is in a bit of an odd middle ground. The Red Sox are very much in the postseason race, currently 2.5 games back of the last wild-card spot, and in any other division, they would probably be safely in the field. They also aren’t built to field their best team in 2023, which is encouraging in some ways, as there are plenty of prospects rising toward Boston to go with terrific, optimism-inspiring turns from Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Brayan Bello.
The Red Sox can’t (and won’t) go overboard playing for this season, but there are some obvious flaws they could clean up. This club is beyond bad at defense — like, refresh the page to make sure it isn’t a glitch bad. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric places the Red Sox dead last at -44, which isn’t as notable as the fact that the 29th-ranked Twins are at -12. Boston flipped utilityman Kiké Hernandez back to the Dodgers on Tuesday after he struggled mightily both at premium defensive positions and with the bat. The Sox should soon get Trevor Story back to help stabilize the middle infield.
Beyond that, they have quite a few potential paths. They could flip veterans Adam Duvall and James Paxton, who are set to become free agents at season’s end, for either immediate pitching help or something more long-term. They could dip into their improving farm system to make some gestures at winning this year without touching future cornerstones such as shortstop Marcelo Mayer or outfielder Roman Anthony, one of the highest-flying prospect risers of the season. Or, frankly, they could do something akin to nothing, hope for improving pitcher health and try to pick off an AL East rival.
A holding-pattern Red Sox team could be a low-key deadline bargain-seeker. A more aggressive Red Sox team might mean an all-out AL East brawl.
