2022 isn’t the only election on the horizon. Who wants to be NC’s governor in 2024?

The midterm elections are only about two months away, and those results will set the stage for 2024.

No, we’re not talking about the presidential race. The 2022 midterm elections in North Carolina are also the midterms of Gov. Roy Cooper’s second term, and the race for the next governor will be an open field.

The 2024 election in North Carolina will determine the first new governor in eight years. Governors can’t run for a third term, at least not consecutively.

Two statewide elected officials have been expected to run for more than a year now: Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

So far, neither has said publicly that they will run, but Robinson has come closer, including in his new memoir out in September.

The potential field, as it stands now, is all men. The Old North State has only had one woman governor, Bev Perdue, a Democrat in office from 2009 to 2013.

Mark Robinson

Cooper is a Democrat and Robinson is a Republican, as North Carolina’s top two executive branch spots do not run as a ticket. The last lieutenant governor who served with Cooper was also a Republican: Dan Forest, who Cooper defeated in the 2020 election. While lieutenant governor can be a stepping stone to the mansion, it has also been an unsuccessful pathway for candidates from both major parties.

Robinson has floated the idea of a gubernatorial run since 2021, and did so again in his forthcoming memoir, “We Are the Majority!” In his book, Robinson, who has aligned himself with former President Donald Trump, talks about his run for office that came after he gave a gun rights speech in Greensboro.

Robinson writes he was disappointed that Forest lost to Cooper, but that it “did create a clear path for what I might do next.”

“In 2024, the Republican field in North Carolina will be open to run for governor,” Robinson writes. But in a subsequent chapter, he stops short of declaring his candidacy, saying, “we are making plans to make a strong run should I decide to.”

Josh Stein

Stein worked for Cooper in the attorney general’s office and then, after serving in the state Senate, succeeded his former boss as AG. Stein won reelection in 2020, in one of the few bright spots for Democrats apart from Cooper’s victory.

Asked last year about his next move, he said 2024 “is a political eternity from now,” The News & Observer reported.

In June, Stein’s campaign sent two fundraising emails criticizing Robinson directly, on issues like abortion and guns, fueling more speculation.

Stein has spent the latter part of the summer facing scrutiny over a 2020 campaign advertisement. The most recent development came last week when a federal court blocked potential charges against Stein from moving forward.

Tim Moore

Aside from Stein and Robinson, who else could be mulling a run for the Executive Mansion? The three most powerful positions in state government are the governor, House speaker and Senate leader. Republicans hold majorities in the General Assembly.

House Speaker Tim Moore appeared close to announcing a run for Congress in 2021 before bowing out once U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn tried to move districts. Cawthorn later lost his 2022 Republican primary to state Sen. Chuck Edwards.

Moore dismissed reporter questions this past week when The N&O asked if he would run for Congress in 2024. Asked if he would run for governor, Moore said, “I’m running for speaker of the House.” He is running unopposed for his House seat. Asked what he wants to do after his next term, he said, “I’ve made no determination.”

Phil Berger

Moore’s counterpart in the Senate is unlikely to run.

Senate leader Phil Berger, an Eden Republican who serves as president pro tempore, told WRAL in July that he while he has thought about running for governor in the past, he “hasn’t gotten that close” to running and doesn’t see it being the place where he could be most effective right now.

Thom Tillis

Other Republican names discussed by political observers include U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis, who was once N.C. House speaker. Tillis won reelection in 2020, and has not made public statements about running for governor.

Tillis and Cooper have traded a few jabs lately, spurring chatter about Cooper considering a U.S. Senate run in 2026 against Tillis, who would be up for reelection that year. Cooper has also been mentioned in media outside the state as a possible presidential candidate, given his ability to win repeatedly in the South.

In August, Cooper laughed off a reporter’s question about his 2026 plans, saying, “I have no idea about that.” The governor explained a tweet critical of Tillis by describing Tillis’ Senate votes against bills that included veterans’ care and capping insulin costs as “particularly egregious.”

Dale Folwell

Another Republican reelected in 2020, State Treasurer Dale Folwell, has been mentioned as a potential candidate for governor. As Cooper issued orders in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Folwell pushed for other statewide officeholders to have a greater say.

He told The Assembly news website for a February article that he’s focused on his current job.

“Being called the treasurer as a noun doesn’t really mean anything to me. Doing the work of the treasury means everything to me,” Folwell said. “Being called the governor doesn’t mean anything to me. Having an opportunity to govern, in the position I’m in now, means everything to me.”

Robert Reives

Stein isn’t the only prominent Democrat who has an eye on higher office.

Another name has been floated in political circles: House Minority Leader Robert Reives, a Chatham County Democrat who could lose his seat after his district changed in the 2022 maps. That could free up time for Reives, who is partner in a law firm, to also mull a run for higher office. If he wins reelection, though, he would have a continued spotlight on his role in party leadership.

The N&O asked Reives if he was considering a gubernatorial run in 2024.

“Right now, the way my district’s drawn up, I’ve got to work real hard to win in 2022,” he said. Reives said he is “completely focused on this race right now” and thinks there is a path to put Democrats in the House majority. If they achieve that, “there’s just so many things I’d love to see us work on in the House, and so that’s really where my focus has been.”

Any future plans are, like other races, dependent on what happens in November.

“If I don’t get out of 2022, I can promise you nobody will be looking for me to run statewide,” Reives said.

Robinson is the first Black lieutenant governor in North Carolina. If Robinson and Reives faced off for governor, whoever won would be the state’s first Black governor.

For more North Carolina government and politics news, listen to the Under the Dome politics podcast from The News & Observer and the NC Insider. You can find it at https://campsite.bio/underthedome or wherever you get your podcasts.