How much will Hurricanes Harvey and Irma hurt the economy?

As cleanup efforts begin in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey's record-setting rainfall over Houston, Corpus Christi, Texas, and the surrounding Gulf region, analysts are still trying to figure out exactly how severely the deluge dinged the U.S. economy's overall trajectory.

Gas prices spiked as oil refineries were forced offline. Trade through Gulf ports was stalled or rerouted, in some cases raising prices for shippers and consumers as products took longer to get to their intended destinations. And local businesses were ravaged by floodwaters and lost foot traffic as community members evacuated and were unable to return to their homes.

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And with Hurricane Irma barreling toward Florida – ripping up large swaths of the Caribbean that lie in its path – analysts are predicting a perfect storm of labor market disruption as unemployment climbs and gross domestic product readings fall.

"The primary concern related to both hurricanes is the human story, not the economic one," Jim Baird, partner and chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, said in a statement Thursday. "Nonetheless, the near-term economic impact of what increasingly appears to be two severe natural disasters in close proximity to one another will be a clear negative, and disruptive to the regional economies in the impacted areas."

Animals being rescued during Harvey:

Indeed, initial unemployment claims climbed to 298,000 last week in the aftermath of Harvey's landfall – the metric's highest reading since April 2015. That represents a 62,000-claim jump and is well above what economists had expected to see. Filings in Texas, specifically, soared by nearly 52,000, making up the lion's share of the increase.

"The first impacts of Hurricane Harvey are beginning to be seen in the U.S. economic data," Scott Anderson, chief economist and executive vice president at Bank of the West Economics, wrote in a research note Thursday. "The Harvey impact will be felt for several more weeks as initial [jobless] claims remain temporarily elevated and net payroll job gains sink for the month of September."

Preparing for Hurricane Irma:

It's not uncommon for unemployment filings to increase in the wake of a disastrous storm, but analysts generally weren't counting on such an abrupt uptick.

"The one-week jump in claims of 62,000 was the biggest since an increase of 81,000 in November 2012 in the wake of Superstorm Sandy," Gus Faucher, chief economist and senior vice president at The PNC Financial Services Group, wrote in a research note Thursday, also noting that "claims jumped by 96,000 in the week after Hurricane Katrina in September 2005."

Those increases could end up weighing on the broader U.S. unemployment rate, which ticked up slightly to 4.4 percent in August but could be revised higher in the months ahead as the government collects more information on the impacts of a storm that's already shaping up to be one of the costliest and most destructive in recent history.

The founder, president and chairman of AccuWeather predicted last week that total losses from the storm would "reach $190 billion, or one percent of the nation's gross domestic product." Not all damage estimates are that lofty. But should that prediction hold true, it would mean Harvey was more costly than Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina combined.

"If the past is any guide, Q3 real GDP could be marginally weaker than expected due to the offline effects of the storm and the fact that Houston accounts for 3.2 percent of U.S. GDP, in addition to being a key energy and shipping hub," Joe Quinlan, managing director and chief market strategist at U.S. Trust, Bank of America Private Wealth Management, wrote in a research note Thursday. "To this point, in the weeks following Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, unemployment claims spiked, industrial production dropped and higher gasoline prices dampened real personal consumption expenditures."

Harvey victims return home:

A common narrative in the immediate aftermath of Harvey's landfall was that the storm would wreak havoc on local communities but wouldn't materially hold down the broader U.S. economy. But as the days went on and the full extent of its damage was assessed, outlooks and predictions began to darken.

"The storm's effect on U.S. GDP is likely to be substantial, but substantial when it comes to large storms is measured in tenths of a percent rather than full percentage points," a team of researchers at UBS wrote in a research note last week. "The fall in U.S. GDP comes from an outright decline in employment as well as a curtailment of exports, especially exports of petroleum products."

In a more recent note published Thursday, UBS researchers warned that "Harvey's economic implications point to more downside risk to payrolls and near-term GDP growth than initially anticipated."

Still, an outpouring of charitable giving and the passage of a $15 billion federal relief package through Capitol Hill this week are aimed at mitigating the losses and hardship engulfing communities damaged by the storm. But Anderson warned a "one-two punch" is on the way in the form of Hurricane Irma – whose heavy winds and driving rain are expected to slam into southern Florida in the coming days.

Barclays researchers earlier this week predicted the Category 5 storm could generate up to $130 billion in insured damage.

"It is estimated that 2 million people in Florida could lose power and Florida's agriculture sector will be hit too, which could lead to price increases for tomatoes, oranges, green beans and cucumbers," Anderson said.

Price increases, community upheaval and unemployment upticks are expected to weigh on national economic growth in the months ahead – but analysts have been quick to point out that previous catastrophic storms didn't completely derail the economy's progress over the long haul. The economy is likely to take on water in the months ahead, but few are expecting growth to completely halt.

"Monthly job growth weakened in the wakes of Katrina and Sandy, but did not outright decline," Faucher said. "Outside of the storms, the U.S. labor market remains in solid shape. With improving demand businesses continue to hire, and the economy is at close to full employment."

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