Nate Silver: Here's who's favored to win the Iowa caucuses
The polling gurus at Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight have been tracking the odds of different candidates winning in the early primary and caucus races.
FiveThirtyEight provides two projections for each race: A "polls-only" model that is based solely on public polling within a particular state, and a "polls-plus" model that additionally factors in national polling and endorsements from sitting governors and members of Congress.
Looking at the Monday-night Iowa caucuses, the two models are more or less in agreement about each party's favorites: businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
In the Republican race, the polls-plus model gives Trump a 46 percent chance of winning, compared with 39 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, 14 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and 1 percent for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
The polls-only model has the same order for the top four candidates but with slightly better odds for the front-runner: Trump is forecast to have a 54 percent chance of winning, compared with 33 percent for Cruz, 11 percent for Rubio, and 1 percent for Carson.
Take a look around Iowa ahead of the caucuses:
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, the polls-plus model gives Clinton a 67 percent chance of winning. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) is projected to have a 33 percent chance, and former Gov. Martin O'Malley of Maryland has a less than 1 percent chance.
Things look even better for Clinton in the polls-only model, with a 72 percent chance of victory, compared with 28 percent for Sanders and a still less than1 percent chance for O'Malley.
The Republican and Democratic candidates have been brawling ahead of the first-in-the-nation caucuses. Trump has become the overwhelming favorite there and in New Hampshire, which hosts the first primary February 9. Trump also has sizable leads nationally.
Clinton, meanwhile, has been staving off a fierce challenge from Sanders, who has surged in recent polls nationally and of the early states.
We'll find out who wins Iowa, for real, on Monday night.
See all the 2016 candidates in Iowa:
More from Business Insider:
