How Long Can the Good Times in the Bakken Last?

Updated

Which city is the most expensive city to rent an entry level apartment in the United States? If you guessed New York City or San Francisco, you would be incorrect.

The most expensive city to rent an entry level apartment in United States is actually Williston, North Dakota. According to a study done by Apartment Guide, the city had an average monthly cost of $2,394 to rent a one bedroom, 700 square foot home, or $500 more than second place San Jose.

Williston rent is very expensive because the good times are still flowing in Bakken. Oil production in the basin just keeps on increasing.


Bakken oil production recently passed the million-barrels-per-day mark, more than OPEC nation Qatar.

Source:Energy Information Agency

The increased oil production has also been a boon for Bakken oil producers, such as Continental Resources , Whiting Petroleum , and Oasis Petroleum .

The three companies have seen their profits and stock prices rise dramatically. Can the good times last?

Big opportunity
The Bakken is primarily a shale play. Shale oil wells run out fast, though -- many shale wells see a 70% production decline in the first year. This is in stark contrast to traditional oil fields, which typically deplete between 6% to 10% a year. Even though production rates are increasing dramatically, they may fall off just as quickly sometime down the road.

There are some signs that a production reversal may not happen anytime soon, however. For one thing, the absolute size of the opportunity just keeps on getting bigger. Last year, the U.S. Geological Survey increased its estimate of total Bakken oil from 570 billion barrels to 900 billion barrels.

Continental Resources President Rick Bott estimates that of the 900 billion barrels, around 3.5% of the total oil (or 32 billion barrels) is currently recoverable. 32 billion barrels would be 87 years' worth of oil, assuming Bakken producers produce at a rate of 1 million barrels a day. Because of advances in technology, however, the percentage recoverable may increase.

Source:Energy Information Agency

Ten years ago, very few people thought the Bakken had any potential at all. Geologists knew shale had a lot of oil, but the technology just wasn't there. Now, because of the advances in horizontal drilling and fracking, the Bakken is a modern day black gold rush. Oil production in the Bakken has increased more than 10-fold since 2004.

There is no reason to think that technology will not unlock more of that opportunity as time goes on.

The bottom line
So far, the good times don't seem like they're ending anytime soon. If anything, oil producers in the Bakken suffer from a glut of oil and gas. 27% of Bakken natural gas is flared because it is uneconomical to market it. 75% of Bakken oil travels by rail rather than more efficient and cheaper pipelines. Because of the glut caused by inadequate infrastructure, Bakken oil trades at a lower price than WTI, the U.S. benchmark for oil.

One day, oil wells in the Bakken will run dry. Bakken oil companies such as Continental Resources will probably have diversified to other shale plays before that time. Until Bakken production wanes, however, the good times look to continue and landowners in Williston, North Dakota will continue to look forward to their monthly rent checks.

Shale isn't the only threat to OPEC
Imagine a company that rents a very specific and valuable piece of machinery for $41,000... per hour (that's almost as much as the average American makes in a year!). And Warren Buffett is so confident in this company's can't-live-without-it business model, he just loaded up on 8.8 million shares. An exclusive, brand-new Motley Fool report reveals the company we're calling OPEC's Worst Nightmare. Just click HERE to uncover the name of this industry-leading stock... and join Buffett in his quest for a veritable LANDSLIDE of profits!

The article How Long Can the Good Times in the Bakken Last? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Jay Yao has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2014 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Advertisement