Why Wal-Mart and McDonald's Will Lag the Market

Why Wal-Mart and McDonald's Will Lag the Market

Consumer spending rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5% last month, the fastest pace since June and another sign that Americans are opening their wallets this holiday season. The positive news has the Dow JonesIndustrial Average rising 0.48% today with broad gains throughout the index.

Spending rose slightly faster than a 0.2% rise in incomes, so the confidence of consumers may be rising a little faster than the actual money they have to spend. That is supported by a University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer sentiment index reading of 82.5, which is the highest level we've seen since July.

Two companies that you would think would welcome this news are Wal-Mart and McDonald's , but the big-box retailer's stock is only up slightly while the Golden Arches are declining today. While these two companies were stars when the economy was getting worse, they're not seeing the same benefits as others as it improves.

Wal-Mart is already seeing same-store sales decline in the U.S, underperforming Target and Costco in that respect. Worse yet, Amazon.com is now as big as Target from a revenue standpoint, and as the online retailer grows it's taking a disproportionate amount of sales from Wal-Mart. Price-sensitive consumers who used to flock to Wal-Mart are now going online, which hurts the company's prospects long term.

The trends are also going against McDonald's, which was a low-price alternative when incomes were falling but is seen as cheap and unhealthy by many consumers today. Instead, consumers with growing incomes are going to fast-casual concepts like Chipotle and Panera Bread, which are growing much more quickly than McDonald's.

The growth in consumer spending should be a positive for Wal-Mart and McDonald's, but market trends may take away some of their upside. I think that's why these stocks are underperforming today and will continue to do so into the future.

A top stock for 2014
What stocks should you be buying now? The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for 2014, and it's one of those stocks that could make you rich. You can find out which stock it is in the special free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2014." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

The article Why Wal-Mart and McDonald's Will Lag the Market originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Travis Hoium has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill, McDonald's, and Panera Bread. The Motley Fool owns shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill, McDonald's, and Panera Bread. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Originally published