3 Predictions for the New Week
I went out on a limb last week, and now it's time to see how that decision played out.
I predicted that Walgreen would close higher on the week. A smaller rival had posted blowout results earlier, and the climate was ripe for a strong showing out of the drugstore giant. It panned out that way. Walgreen rose 2.3% on the week, even after the Dow and S&P 500 slipped. I was right.
I predicted that the tech-heavy Nasdaq would outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average. . This has been a tricky call lately, so how did it play out this time? Well, this was a mixed week for stocks. The Nasdaq moved 0.7% higher, besting the Dow and its 1.2% slide. I was right.
My final call was for CalAmp to beat Wall Street's income estimates in its latest quarter. The provider of wireless communications solutions has managed to come out ahead on the bottom line in each of the past few quarters, and I was banking on a repeat performance. CalAmp's profit of $0.19 a share was well above the $0.16 a share that analysts were targeting. I was right.
Three out of three? Sweet!
Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.
1. Tesla Motors will close lower on the week
Tesla Motors has been one of this year's hotter stocks.
Last week's battery module fire saw the shares slide. The story itself was overblown, and Elon Musk responded perfectly. As bad as the incident may seem, it would have probably been far worse if it a car with an internal combustion engine was impaled by a large metal object on the road.
However, the event did lead investors to wonder whether Tesla was really worth nearly $25 billion at this point in its growth cycle. Even an otherwise bullish analyst had to step on the brakes by pointing out that the valuation was overestimating the execution risk that Tesla faces in ramping up its presence.
I think Tesla's a long-term winner. I do. However, while Tesla has typically bounced back after a bad week, I don't think it will happen this time around.
My first call is for this Tesla to close lower on the week.
2.The Nasdaq Composite will beat the Dow this week
Tech has been a big winner in recent years, so betting on tech over stodgy blue chips has been a good bet for me more often than not.
I'm going to stick with this pick. Most of the names in the composite are just too cheap at this point, and tech should be what carries us through this economic recovery. The market is ripe for the tech-stacked secondary stocks to continue to outpace the 30 megacaps that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
3. Costco will beat Wall Street's earnings estimates
Some stocks are just flat-out better than others.
Costco is a leading warehouse-club chain. The company serves up bulk-sized savings to its growing membership base. Shoppers overlook the exposed ceiling beams and warehouse feel for the huge sums of money that they save on the way out.
Another thing Costco does is make analysts look like perpetual underachievers. If analysts say the company posted a profit of $1.46 a share in its latest quarter, I'll argue that it held up better than that. History's on my side!
One of my best tricks to beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let's go over the past year of earnings reports.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
Things can change, of course. Costco raised its membership prices two years ago, and there's always the fear that there's only so much a penny-pincher is willing to pay for a bargain. Despite Costco's historical all-weather appeal, one can never be entirely sure that customers won't move away from the warehouse club concept in general.
However, it's hard to argue against the trend. Everything seems to be falling into place for another market-thumping quarter on the bottom line.
Three for the road
Well, there three predictions right there. Let's see how I fare this week. In the meantime, remember that the best investing approach is to choose great companies and stick with them for the long term. The Motley Fool's free report "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich" names stocks that could help you build long-term wealth and retire well, along with some winning wealth-building strategies that every investor should be aware of. Click here now to keep reading.
The article 3 Predictions for the New Week originally appeared on Fool.com.
Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Costco Wholesale and Tesla Motors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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