Why LeapFrog Shares Got Left Behind

Why LeapFrog Shares Got Left Behind

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of LeapFrog Enterprises were getting passed over by investors today, falling as much as 11% after the company released underwhelming guidance in its second-quarter earnings report.

So what: Sales for the toymaker were actually impressive for the quarter, jumping 16% to $83 million, way ahead of estimates at $77.2 million. Earnings per share also beat the experts' view, coming in at a $0.04-per-share loss during the seasonally weak quarter, versus the $0.08 loss expected. Sales grew by double digits in all segments for LeapFrog, which also rolled the LeapPad Ultra last quarter, which it calls the ultimate kids' learning tablet. Still, Wall Street was turned off by weak guidance, as management predicted Q3 EPS of $0.32 against expectations of $0.34 and full-year EPS of $0.57-$0.60 compared to the $0.64 seen by the experts.

Now what: I wouldn't put too much stock in LeapFrog's guidance, as the company has been consistently conservative with its projections, and in each of the last four quarters, it has topped analyst estimates by more than 20%. It's worth remembering that the second half is the key for LeapFrog, as the toymaker derives about three-quarters of its sales from the last six months of the year during the all-important back-to-school and holiday-shopping seasons. Keep an eye on sales of new products such as the LeapPad Ultra, as that will tell if management is making smart long-term investments.

LeapFrog's strategy of carving out a small niche in the tablet world may be a clever one. With its focus on children's education, it can avoid the cutthroat competition among the tech heavyweights. But that doesn't mean you should avoid investing in the big boys. Find out "Who Will Win the War Between the 5 Biggest Tech Stocks?" in The Motley Fool's latest free report, which details the knock-down, drag-out battle being waged by the five kings of tech. Click here to keep reading.

The article Why LeapFrog Shares Got Left Behind originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Jeremy Bowman owns shares of LeapFrog Enterprises. The Motley Fool recommends LeapFrog Enterprises. The Motley Fool owns shares of LeapFrog Enterprises. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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