Like a commuter caught in an early evening traffic jam, Dell stock is stuck under $13.65 a share. Investors don't believe Carl Icahn's $14 bid is serious, even if the fight between Icahn and Michael Dell is all that and more.
"Can you imagine a real estate broker running advertisements warning of termite danger in a house each time a prospective buyer seems interested?" Icahn wrote in an open letter to shareholders.
He's referring to a late March filing in which Dell described its prospects as bleak enough to require a total overhaul of the business, an overhaul best executed as a private entity. Who's right?
Let's address that question in context. Here's a by-the-numbers look at how Dell stock compares to peers Apple and Hewlett-Packard :
Current share price
Trailing P/E ratio
Cash from operations
Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Yahoo! Finance.
And here's what Fools say, going by the data available in our CAPS investor intelligence database:
CAPS stars (out of 5)
No. of CAPS ratings
Bullish CAPS ratings
Bearish CAPS ratings
Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
Fools have expressed mixed views of the Dell's go-private plan for months. The last CAPS All-Star to weigh in abandoned the stock in April. "PC sales [fell off] much steeper than I expected," wrote Flygal5 in giving the stock a thumbs-down rating in CAPS. "I was wrong on this one, got to stop listening to Southeastern Asset Management."
Ouch! I'm not so sure Southeastern deserves such harsh criticism.
Verdict: Sell Dell stock now
And yet it's worth noting that Southeastern has sold half its stake in Dell to Icahn. Explaining the move in a statement to Businessweek, the firm said Icahn is "in the best position" to lead the fight for a better offer. I suppose just saying "we have to move on" would have been too forward?
To be fair, those holding on are still due a dividend payment yielding 2.4% annualized. Dell also continues to partner with Oracle for serving data centers and other larger-size customers. There's plenty of life left in the business.
But can Icahn force a sale above $13.65 a share? I don't think so. Not with Southeastern moving to the sidelines. Do you agree? Let us know what you think of Icahn's chances, and whether you'd buy, sell, or short Dell stock at current prices, using the comments box below.
Five stocks enter, one stock leaves
It's incredible to think just how much of our digital and technological lives are almost entirely shaped and molded by just a handful of companies. Find out "Who Will Win the War Between the 5 Biggest Tech Stocks?" in The Motley Fool's latest free report, which details the knock-down, drag-out battle being waged by the five kings of tech. Click here to keep reading.
The article Here's How to Play Dell Stock Now originally appeared on Fool.com.
Fool contributor Tim Beyers is a member of the Motley Fool Rule Breakers stock-picking team and the Motley Fool Supernova Odyssey I mission. He owned shares of Apple at the time of publication. Check out Tim's web home and portfolio holdings or connect with him on Google+, Tumblr, or Twitter, where he goes by @milehighfool. You can also get his insights delivered directly to your RSS reader.The Motley Fool recommends Apple. The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple and Oracle. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.