Why salesforce.com's Price Drop Makes No Sense


salesforce.com's earnings announcement didn't sit well with investors. With its stock down over 6% since sharing its fiscal 2014 Q1 results, you'd think Salesforce had either missed estimates by a mile, provided a poor outlook for the balance of its fiscal year, or both. But this is where things get interesting: Neither occurred. When you look at non-GAAP results (in other words, removing one-time items), Salesforce grew revenue and operating cash flow, and raised guidance for the year. So, what's the problem?

A few specs
It seems Salesforce has always traded like a growth stock: With a non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratio in the 85 to 90 range, investors and analysts alike have been content to focus on revenue growth and future prospects in its core customer relationship management market and cloud solutions. So Salesforce's 28% jump in revenue compared to last year, up to $893 million this past quarter, would appear to be a win. Incidentally, the $893 million in revenue beat average analyst expectations for the quarter by $6 million.

Both deferred revenue and unbilled deferred revenue were also up significantly, 30% and 33% year-over-year, respectively. Toss in a 33% increase in operating cash flow and non-GAAP earnings of $0.10 a share this quarter -- meeting expectations -- and the sell-off of Salesforce shares makes even less sense. And what a sell-off it was, with nearly 21.58 million shares traded the day after Salesforce's May 23 earnings announcement, compared to its daily average of 5.54 million shares.

After raising revenue expectations for fiscal 2014 to $3.835 billion to $3.875 billion, a 26% to 27% improvement from last year, Salesforce now expects non-GAAP EPS in the $0.47 to $0.49 range for the year, compared to $0.49 average estimates from analysts. The problem? An analyst at Pacific Crest Securities said it all, "The guidance is just in line, and we're used to seeing these guys raise."

What's changed?
Some grumblings you'll hear relating to Salesforce include its move toward expanding via acquisition in lieu of strictly organic growth. That can be an expensive proposition to be sure, and is expected to impact Salesforce's GAAP numbers this year by an estimated $86 million.

A legitimate concern for Salesforce, just as it's always been, is growing competition in both the CRM and cloud computing markets. German-based SAP and CRM up-and-comer Microsoft and its Dynamic CRM are certainly not to be trifled with.

Microsoft's Dynamics CRM generates about $500 million annually; a pittance compared to its total revenue, but its integration with Office 365 could change that going forward. Like Microsoft, SAP isn't reliant on CRM revenue -- it currently accounts for about 11% of total IFRS sales -- and diversified business lines are rarely a bad thing. For both SAP and Microsoft, revenue diversification gives them time to grow their respective solutions, while Salesforce is heavily reliant on its CRM suite to drive revenue. With that said, Salesforce deserves some credit; it became the No. 1 CRM provider as measured by revenue in 2012 according to Gartner, replacing SAP.

From here
Given Salesforce's $3 billion in cash and equivalents, improving operating cash flow and revenue, and its strong presence in the explosive cloud market, Salesforce is positioned well for future growth, just as it was prior to its recent earnings announcement.

About the only thing different about Salesforce today compared to last week is its stock price. If Salesforce made sense at price-to-earnings multiples of 85 or 90 prior to its earnings announcement, then it still does. If you're a growth investor, Salesforce was already a solid long-term opportunity. Now, it's even better.

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The article Why salesforce.com's Price Drop Makes No Sense originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Tim Brugger has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Salesforce. The Motley Fool owns shares of Microsoft. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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