BNY Mellon Chief Economist Expects Multiyear Global Economic Expansion


Richard Hoey, chief economist for Bank of New York Mellon , believes a period of extended global economic expansion is on the horizon for the foreseeable future.

Hoey talked about his expectations in his most recent economic update posted in video form on the bank's website, including specific outlooks on U.S., European, and Chinese economies.

According to the update, a U.S. recession is unlikely until after the 2016 election, as the Federal Reserve is expected to continue with its easing monetary policies. Until then, Hoey believes, U.S. economic growth will pick up by at least 3%.

Additionally, Hoey expects the European economy to experience a "saucer-shaped pattern," the bottom of which Europe will hit during the latter part of 2013. China, meanwhile, will not experience any "hard landing" in economic growth, but rather a sustained expansion at a slightly slower pace.

"In the short run," Hoey said, "the global economy has been in a subcycle of slower growth within its sustained expansion. This is due to a combination of factors, including the final months of the recession in the overall European economy, this year's fiscal drag in the U.S. and some rebalancing in China. However, we expect acceleration in global economic growth near the end of 2013 that will significantly strengthen throughout 2014."


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