Why MGIC Investment Shares Dropped Temporarily
Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of MGIC Investment , a mortgage insurance underwriter, tumbled as much as 10% following the release of its first-quarter earnings report. Shares have since recovered to trade lower by just 1%.
So what: Make that 11 straight quarterly losses for MGIC Investment. For the quarter, MGIC reported a 29% drop in year-over-year revenue to $269.2 million and an EPS loss of $0.31. Wall Street, on the other hand, was forecasting revenue of $276.5 million and a smaller loss of just $0.16 per share. On the bright side -- and likely the reason for the rebound -- the Home Affordable Refinance Program, known as HARP, added $3 billion of $6.5 billion in new insurance written compared to just $4.2 billion in new insurance written in the year-ago quarter. Delinquent loans dropped almost a full percentage point to 10.91% by March 31, 2013.
Now what: Hang on while I put on my surprised look that MGIC missed estimates and reported another quarterly loss as investment income slumped. If you didn't catch that humungous helping of sarcasm, let me spell this out further. MGIC essentially doubled its share count last quarter in order to raise cash to drop its obscenely high risk-to-capital ratio. Furthermore, its management has commented previously that this ratio is only expected to get worse before it gets better. This means continuing losses despite a slowly improving loan environment. As I noted in March, buying into MGIC isn't investing; it's pure speculation!
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