Puget Sound Energy Unveils 2013 Draft Integrated Resource Plan
Energy efficiency, 'peaking' resources and renewables remain draft plan's focus
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- The best strategy for meeting Puget Sound Energy customers' long-range electricity demand is for the utility to continue promoting energy efficiency, acquiring additional power supply for periods of peak customer usage, and securing enough renewable-power resources, over time, to stay in compliance with state law, according to the utility's draft 2013 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).
Updated every two years, the draft plan released today forecasts PSE customers' energy requirements 20 years into the future and suggests the resource options most likely to meet customer energy needs at the lowest cost and risk.
The draft IRP notes that development of vast North American shale-bed deposits of natural gas has steeply driven down the commodity's market price, which in turn has softened electricity prices. The draft plan adds, however, that "... it is not realistic to expect natural gas prices to remain this low over the long term. The very affordability of this fuel means that usage is also increasing, especially in the transportation and utility [power-generation] sectors, and this will create upward pressure on prices over time."
The market price for natural gas, which topped $13 per dekatherm (MMBtu) in 2008, is currently trading in the $3.50 to $4 range. The draft IRP sees today's wholesale gas prices rising to the $6 to $7 range by 2020. Meanwhile, the cumulative, 20-year cost of securing PSE customers' electric supply is projected to be $13.8 billion. While that figure is slightly above the 2011 IRP's forecast, it is far below the 20-year, $20 billion PSE power cost predicted four years ago.
"The surge in domestic production of natural gas over the past few years has been a game-changer that's benefiting our customers and our economy," said Booga Gilbertson, PSE vice president of Operations. "What hasn't changed, though, is PSE's fundamental game plan for giving our customers safe, dependable, efficient energy service."
The draft IRP predicts that, 20 years from now, PSE will need about 40 percent more natural gas supply - about 380,000 dekatherms more per day - to serve its customers' peak, wintertime demand for gas. Current peak-day demand is approximately 930,000 dekatherms.
An additional 156,000 dekatherms per day will be needed by 2033 to fuel PSE's simple-cycle gas-fired power plants. This added supply capacity represents a 90 percent increase in the natural gas used by PSE's fleet of "peaker" plants. These power plants typically operate only during high spikes in power demand - primarily winter cold snaps or summertime heat waves - or when the plants are needed to offset the loss of base-load power-generating resources caused by drought, equipment failure, or other unforeseen circumstances.
Expanded use of natural gas across the region could strain its gas infrastructure, the draft IRP says. Ensuring sufficient gas supply regionally may require expansion of the Northwest's gas-transmission pipeline system and more underground gas-storage capacity. Another option could involve PSE development of a liquefied natural gas facility that not only would help the utility meet customers' peak-demand periods but also could serve marine and road transportation powered by clean-burning natural gas.
By 2033, PSE will need to secure nearly 5,400 megawatts (MW) of additional power resources to meet customers' peak electricity demand, according to the draft IRP. The utility can shave off almost 1,000 MW of that need by helping customers save energy, the draft plan says. Much of the remaining supply can be obtained, particularly in the near term, through cost-effective market-power purchases. But longer term, as regional power demand begins to exceed existing generation capacity, less reliance on market power may be warranted, the draft IRP states.
In addition, PSE will need to acquire another 300 MW of renewable energy by 2022 - and 600 MW by 2033 - to maintain compliance with the Washington Energy Independence Act (I-937). The voter-approved law requires utilities to provide 15 percent of their customers' electricity from renewable sources by 2020. PSE today is the top utility producer of renewable energy in the Northwest, with 773 MWs of generating capacity from its three large wind farms in Washington.
Other highlights of the draft 2013 IRP:
The draft plan found that continued operation of the coal-fired Colstrip Generating Station in Eastern Montana as part of PSE's diversified energy portfolio remains economical for PSE customers under most of the likely future scenarios examined. The draft plan, however, did identify some future market conditions or potential regulations which could impact that finding. PSE owns about one-third of the 2,094-MW plant's output. Colstrip provided 16.7 percent of PSE customers' total power supply in 2012. The draft IRP's base-case analysis suggests that continued Colstrip operations would save PSE customers about $150 million per year in power costs. Replacing Colstrip power with a combination of gas-fired resources and market power, the draft IRP states, would require a 7 percent increase in PSE electric rates and increase the volatility of customers' bills.
A decade-long surplus of power-generating capacity in the Northwest will soon be gone. Once coal-fired power plants in Boardman, Ore., and Centralia, Wash., are retired starting in 2020, reliability of the region's electric grid will "erode" unless replacement power plants are built. The draft IRP notes that PSE will devote additional study to this issue through an update to the plan later this year.
The draft 2013 IRP can be viewed at PSE.com. The final IRP will be filed with the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission by May 30.
About Puget Sound Energy
Washington state's oldest local energy utility, Puget Sound Energy serves 1.1 million electric customers and more than 760,000 natural gas customers in 10 counties. PSE meets the energy needs of its customers, in part, through cost-effective energy efficiency, procurement of sustainable energy resources, and far-sighted investment in energy-delivery infrastructure. PSE employees are dedicated to providing great customer service that is safe, dependable and efficient. For more information, visit www.PSE.com.
Puget Sound Energy
Roger Thompson, 1-888-831-7250
KEYWORDS: United States North America Washington
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