Next Week: Be Prepared for BP's Results
LONDON -- Oil super-major BP is due to announce its annual results on Tuesday this coming week (Feb. 5). At the time of writing, the shares of this FTSE 100 giant are trading at 476 pence -- barely changed from a year ago compared with an 11% rise in the Footsie.
How will BP's business have performed in 2012 compared with last year? And will the results justify the weak performance of the shares? Here's your cut-out-and-check results table!
FY 2011 | Forecast FY 2012 | Forecast FY growth | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sales | $376bn | $362bn | -3.7% |
Earnings per share (EPS) | $1.36 | $0.88 | -35.3% |
Dividend per share | $0.29 | $0.34 | +17.2% |
Revenue
BP has seen quarter-on-quarter declines in revenue through the first nine months of 2012, and analysts are forecasting more of the same in the fourth quarter.
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 (forecast) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue ($bn) | 94 | 93 | 91 | 84 |
If analyst Q4 forecasts are on the button, revenue for the full year of $362 billion will be down close to 4% on the 2011 number.
Earnings and dividend
BP has done EPS of $0.52 for the first nine months of 2012, which is 45% below the same period last year. However, analysts are expecting a stronger earnings performance in Q4, raising the full-year EPS to around $0.88 and moderating the year-on-year decline to around 35%.
BP cancelled its dividend payments in June 2010 following the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. When the company reinstated the dividend for Q4 2010, it did so at half the pre-spill level with the intention of growing the payout "in line with the improving circumstances of the company".
BP has paid three quarterly dividends so far for 2012, totaling $0.25 per share -- 19% ahead of the $0.21 declared for the same period in 2011. Analyst forecasts for a Q4 dividend of $0.09 would bring the full-year payout to $0.34, or around 21.5 pence in sterling. Note, though, that you won't get to hear the Q4 sterling dividend until March when BP announces the applicable dollar-sterling exchange rate.
Value
BP made good progress in 2012 by settling its Deepwater Horizon liabilities on a number of fronts and by reaching an agreement that will shift its interest in Russian oil from a partnership with oligarchs to a stake in state-controlled Rosneft. Despite these positive developments -- on which you can expect to hear more in the upcoming results -- BP's shares have made no headway over the past year.
Based on a share price of 476 pence, and full-year forecast EPS in sterling of around 56 pence, BP is on a price-to-earnings ratio of just 8.5 -- well below the market average. The stock also offers a better-than-average dividend yield of 4.5%.
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The article Next Week: Be Prepared for BP's Results originally appeared on Fool.com.
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