3 Reasons Not to Sell Amazon Despite Its Latest Run
Back in May of last year, I calledAmazon my highest conviction stock pick in the market. Since then, the stock has risen about 30% -- far outpacing the broader market, and making me look like a pretty good investor -- even though eight months is hardly long enough to claim it was a good call.
Since then, some -- including our top technology analyst Eric Bleeker -- have been offering up reasons to sell Amazon. But I'm here to show you why I don't intend to sell my shares, even though they make up roughly 12% of my real-life holdings.
Read all the way to the end and I'll offer access to a special premium report on Amazon that digs into greater detail on the company. You'll also be given real-time updates throughout the year as big news arises.
Sure, it's expensive
I won't beat around the bush here. By most traditional metrics, Amazon is an expensive company. Just take a look at how it compares to Apple and Google -- two other companies that -- like Amazon -- have so many different irons in the fire that it's difficult to discern exactly what their singular specialty is.
Source: Yahoo! Finance.
As you can see, when it comes to earnings and free cash flow, Amazon simply looks ridiculously expensive compared to these peers. But when one looks at sales, the picture is a bit different, with Amazon actually looking like the cheapest of the three.
How could this be? Well, if there's one big reasons, it's this: Amazon is spending money hand over fist right now to invest in the future and offer its products for bargain-basement prices. That simply isn't the case with Apple or Google, which sport profit margins of 27% and 22%, respectively. Amazon's profit margin, on the other hand, comes in at a much lower 0.07%.
But margins won't always be this way, and one of our top value investors agrees with me. Sure, Amazon may appear expensive, but over the next five years, today's price tag may seem more than fair. CEO and Founder Jeff Bezos knows what he's doing: sowing the seeds for long-term success.
A sustainable competitive advantage
Amazon has made its name by becoming the leader in customer service, especially in timely delivery of packages. The key to success in this arena has been the build-out of enormous, extremely expensive fulfillment centers throughout the U.S.
The company has spent billions over the past two years in building out these centers. Along with investments in technology -- like the development of next-generation tablets and e-readers -- the costs of these fulfillment centers have eaten up the lion's share of Amazon's cash flow. Eventually, the company will be spending less in this arena, as Amazon doesn't need an unlimited number of these centers to deliver its products.
When this moment arrives, it will be able to produce copious amounts of free cash flow. Joe Magyer, the lead advisor of our Inside Value service, tends to look only at unloved and dirt-cheap stocks for his subscribers. And yet, even he can't resist Amazon. It is currently a Core stock for his members; as he recently stated: "Where Mr. Market sees Amazon throwing good money after bad, I see an economic powerhouse forgoing mediocre profits today for massive ones tomorrow ."
And the best part about this spending spree is that it puts ever more distance between Amazon and potential competition such as Wal-Mart or Target . Any company trying to match the scope of Amazon's fulfillment centers would have to invest hundreds of billions before being able to offer the same type of service.
International concerns? Don't get ahead of yourself!
The final reason some Amazon bears say now is the time to sell is because of the difficulty of international expansion. As the Fool's senior tech analyst, Eric Bleeker, pointed out, Amazon is only in seven different countries, and expansion in such areas as India and China will be very difficult given the lack of infrastructure comparable to what we have in the U.S.
But we're getting ahead of ourselves. Sure, expansion abroad may be tough, but with only 4.9% of all retail sales taking place online in America, I think there's still tons of room for growth domestically.
So there you have it. Although it's priced high, today's price could be a deal five years from now. The company has a distinct competitive advantage that offers protection for investors, and there's still tons of room for growth domestically.
If you'd like a second opinion, I suggest you check out our latest premium report on the company, prepared by Joe Magyer.
He'll tell you what's driving the company's growth, and fill you in on reasons to buy and reasons to sell Amazon in our new premium report. Our report also has you covered with a full year of free analyst updates to keep you informed as the company's story changes, so click here now to read more.
The article 3 Reasons Not to Sell Amazon Despite Its Latest Run originally appeared on Fool.com.
Brian Stoffel owns shares of Apple, Google, and Amazon.com. The Motley Fool recommends Amazon.com, Apple, and Google. The Motley Fool owns shares of Amazon.com, Apple, and Google. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.