Now more than ever, a comfortable retirement depends on secure, stable investments. Unfortunately, the right stocks for retirement won't just fall into your lap. In this series, I look at 10 measures to show what makes a great retirement-oriented stock.
Natural gas has gone from being a flared-off byproduct of oil production to becoming the next big thing in energy. With huge production gains, the challenge lately has been to transport gas to market. Spectra Energy (NYS: SE) has an extensive pipeline network for transmission and distribution of that gas from production to final customers use. How will the rebound in nat-gas prices affect the company? Below, we'll revisit how Spectra Energy does on our 10-point scale.
The right stocks for retirees
With decades to go before you need to tap your investments, you can take greater risks, weighing the chance of big losses against the potential for mind-blowing returns. But as retirement approaches, you no longer have the luxury of waiting out a downturn.
Sure, you still want good returns, but you also need to manage your risk and protect yourself against bear markets, which can maul your finances at the worst possible time. The right stocks combine both of these elements in a single investment.
When scrutinizing a stock, retirees should look for:
Size. Most retirees would rather not take a flyer on unproven businesses. Bigger companies may lack their smaller counterparts' growth potential, but they do offer greater security.
Consistency. While many investors look for fast-growing companies, conservative investors want to see steady, consistent gains in revenue, free cash flow, and other key metrics. Slow growth won't make headlines, but it will help prevent the kind of ugly surprises that suddenly torpedo a stock's share price.
Stock stability. Conservative retirement investors prefer investments that move less dramatically than typical stocks, and they particularly want to avoid big losses. These investments will give up some gains during bull markets, but they won't fall as far or as fast during bear markets. Beta measures volatility, but we also want a track record of solid performance as well.
Valuation. No one can afford to pay too much for a stock, even if its prospects are good. Using normalized earnings multiples helps smooth out one-time effects, giving you a longer-term context.
Dividends. Most of all, retirees look for stocks that can provide income through dividends. Retirees want healthy payouts now and consistent dividend growth over time -- as long as it doesn't jeopardize the company's financial health.
With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Spectra Energy.
What We Want to See
Pass or Fail?
Market cap > $10 billion
Revenue growth > 0% in at least four of five past years
Free cash flow growth > 0% in at least four of past five years
Beta < 0.9
Worst loss in past five years no greater than 20%
Normalized P/E < 18
Current yield > 2%
5-year dividend growth > 10%
Streak of dividend increases >= 10 years
Payout ratio < 75%
4 out of 10
Source: S&P Capital IQ. Total score = number of passes.
Since we looked at Spectra Energy last year, the company's score has dropped by a point, with a drop in revenue and a boost in valuation counting against Spectra. The stock has also been stuck in the doldrums, with share prices falling more than 10% over the past year.
The natural gas boom has created a lot of winners on the exploration and production side of the business, with new finds making investors in small companies rich. But it has also presented plenty of opportunities to Spectra to extend its existing pipeline network to encompass new discoveries. For instance, in Ohio's Utica Shale, Spectra entered into a joint venture with Enbridge (NYS: ENB) and DTE Energy (NYS: DTE) to build a pipeline from northeastern Ohio to Michigan and Ontario, opening up new markets for the shale gas produced there.
But Spectra is going beyond simply passively collecting and moving natural gas. Its joint venture with Phillips 66 (NYS: PSX) owns the general partnership interest in DCP Midstream Partners (NYS: DPM) , which is the largest U.S. producer of natural gas liquids. With liquids having gained in popularity because of their higher prices compared to dry gas, DCP gives Spectra a valuable niche in the midstream industry.
For retirees and other conservative investors, the fact that Spectra's profits dropped 30% in its most recent quarter due to lower prices for energy products is somewhat concerning. But longer term, the company is setting the stage for some impressive gains if energy prices start to rebound. For retirement investors willing to make such a long-term bet on energy, Spectra's healthy dividend is worth a closer look despite its somewhat lofty valuation and weak growth recently.
Finding exactly the right stock to retire with is a tough task, but it's not impossible. Searching for the best candidates will help improve your investing skills, and teach you how to separate the right stocks from the risky ones.
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The article Will Spectra Energy Help You Retire Rich? originally appeared on Fool.com.
Fool contributor Dan Caplinger has no positions in the stocks mentioned above. The Motley Fool owns shares of Spectra Energy. Motley Fool newsletter services recommend DCP Midstream Partners and Spectra Energy. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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