November Philadelphia Fed Report: It Is Not Sunny in Philadelphia

This morning already brought a mostly in-line report from the Empire Manufacturing district of New York. That was still negative from New York, and now we have another drop being reported from the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve put the caveat out right in the start of its report that this is "following the disruptive effects of Hurricane Sandy on the region." All figures are looking grim, so the community has to hope that the effects of the storm are the only thing at play here. Firms reported slight declines in shipments, employment and hours worked, and expectations for future employment and capital spending have weakened in the past two months.

To show just how bad this report was, the index fell to -10.7 in November from a positive 5.7 in October. Bloomberg was looking for a 4.5 but Dow Jones was looking for only a 0.0 reading.

Priced paid rose to 27.9 in November from 19.0 in October, and prices received rose to 6.3 from 5.4. The employment went to -6.8 from -10.7, but new orders fell to -4.6 from -0.6. The big lag was also in inventories, which fell all the way down to -12.5 in November from a positive 2.1 in October. Here is the FULL NOVEMBER REPORT from the Philly Fed.

Stocks initially dipped due to the disappointment, but they have bounced back now that the algorithm trading machines were overridden by traders who are both looking for bargains and who are willing to smooth over the current reports that would be wildly affected by storm damage.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

JON C. OGG

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