Why NPS Pharmaceuticals' Shares Plunged


Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of biopharma company NPS Pharmaceuticals (NAS: NPSP) were getting battered by investors today, falling as much as 14% in intraday trading after Amgen (NAS: AMGN) announced disappointing Phase 3 results from its EVOLVE trials.

So what: EVOLVE, which stands for Evaluation Of Cinacalcet HCl Therapy to Lower CardioVascular Events, could have expanded the market for Sensipar and Mimpara. Investors following NPS know that these are key drugs for NPS in its partnership and licensing agreement with Amgen. The news isn't really a big deal for Amgen and its shareholders since it wouldn't have had a huge upside impact for that massive company, but the gain would have been much more significant for the smaller NPS.

Now what: The calculus that investors should be doing today is figuring out how much upside from EVOLVE they believe was already baked into NPS' stock price. If the stock hadn't been priced for a huge gain from a positive outcome from EVOLVE, the double-digit sell-off today could very well be an overreaction.

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