You saw the headlines. You know your stock price made a big move. But what does that portend for your investment's future?
By pairing the latest news with the collective wisdom of our 180,000-strong Motley Fool CAPS investing community, we might be able to discover whether your stock's latest exploits are a short-term hiccup -- or the start of a much bigger trend.
The following stocks have all made big moves over the past five trading days:
Expedia (NAS: EXPE)
Deer Consumer Products (NAS: DEER)
AVI BioPharma (NAS: AVII)
Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
A BOGO sale
Don't get all flustered about online travel agent Expedia's drop in value: It was the result of spinning off TripAdvisor (NAS: TRIP) , its travel review and planning service. Expedia shareholders received one share of TripAdvisor and one share of Expedia for every two shares of Expedia they held at the close of trading Tuesday.
Many feel it represents an opportunity to unlock shareholder value that was contained in the captive business unit, if for no other reason than its immediate addition to the S&P 500 will force index funds to buy the stock. With a move away from just review and planning and into vacation home rentals, such as those offered by HomeAway, I view this as a risky proposition. Although it's a travel-related service, it's wholly different from its main operations.
Maybe it was Expedia shareholders dumping their extra shares, but TripAdvisor's stock is down from its IPO price, which calls into question Expedia's decision to spin it off at this time. Competitor Kayak recently put its own IPO on hold because of poor market conditions.
With 19% of the CAPS members rating Expedia marking it to underperform the market, it may be competition from priceline.com (NAS: PCLN) they're worried about and not whether the spinoff takes flight. Tell me in the comments section below or on the Expedia CAPS page if you think this unlocks the door to growth for the travel agent, then put it on your watchlist to keep track of its progress.
Chinese gadget maker Deer Consumer Products continues to try and jawbone its way out of a falling stock price, once again railing at short-seller Alfred Little for pushing "short and distort" schemes. It claims the short-seller threatened to continue publishing negative stories against the company unless it withdrew its lawsuit against it and Seeking Alpha, an investment website that published Alfred Little's articles.
The short-seller has published incendiary articles targeting Deer, Silvercorp Metals (NYS: SVM) , Sino-Forest, and a number of other companies. Both Deer and Silvercorp have come out swinging against the allegations, but Deer seems the most outspoken, putting out two press releases in as many days discussing the attack it faces from Alfred Little.
While the broader CAPS community is fairly evenly divided over the future of Deer, All-Star members are fairly well convinced it can't beat the Street, as 66% of those rating the kitchen gadget maker think it will fall short. Add Deer Consumer Products to your watchlist and let us know in the comments section below if it will be able to talk its way out of the downward spiral it's on.
The same, but different
After regaining compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements, the CEO of biotech AVI BioPharma bought a big slug of stock on the open market, some 300,000 shares. Investors like to point to the Peter Lynch maxim that insiders can sell their stock for any reason, but they only buy for one: They think the price is going to go up.
Along with a number of other biotechs, like BioCryst Pharmaceuticals and Sinovac Biotech (NYS: SVA) , AVI was swept along by the warnings of a worldwide pandemic that has thus far not come to pass. Now a rare strain of the H1N1 swine flu virus -- the H1N2 case is only the second one ever -- was recently discovered, but there's no reason to believe it's the start of a new outbreak. Still, it is a cause for concern, as viruses that mutate significantly can lead to pandemics.
Despite shares trading down more than 70% from their 52-week highs, the CAPS community remains supportive of the biotech, with 88% rating it to outperform the broad indexes. Add the stock to the Fools' free portfolio tracker to keep on top of developments as they break.
These stocks made a lot of noise this week, but The Motley Fool has identified three companies that are quietly cashing in on the explosion of smartphones and tablet PCs. You can get instant access to these companies by clicking here -- it's free! But only for a limited time, so hurry.
At the time thisarticle was published Fool contributorRich Dupreyholds no position in any company mentioned.Click hereto see his holdings and a short bio.The Motley Fool owns shares of TripAdvisor LLC.Motley Fool newsletter serviceshave recommended buying shares of HomeAway and priceline.com. Try any of our Foolish newsletter servicesfree for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe thatconsidering a diverse range of insightsmakes us better investors. The Motley Fool has adisclosure policy.
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