2-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Progenics?


Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, biotech company Progenics Pharmaceuticals (NAS: PGNX) has received a distressing two-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Progenics' business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.


Headquarters (Founded)

Tarrytown, N.Y. (1986)

Market Cap

$287 million



Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$84.8 million


CEO Mark Baker (since March 2011)
CFO Robert McKinney (since March 2005)

Return on Equity (Average, Past 3 Years)



$498 million / $336 million

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 9% of the 184 members who have rated Progenics believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include All-Stars TSIF and zzlangerhans, both of whom are ranked in the top 1% of our community.

Just yesterday, TSIF touched on Progenics' seemingly unsustainable price action: "Simply shorting the 25% spike in Progenics Pharmaceuticals on the phase III data for its constipation drug. ... Even if this gets into approval, I don't see much market upside. Short term call."

In fact, Progenics currently sports a particularly lofty EV/EBITDA of 39. That represents a clear premium to much larger drug makers like GlaxoSmithKline (NYS: GSK) (13), Merck (NYS: MRK) (6), and Pfizer (NYS: PFE) (7).

CAPS resident biotech expert zzlangerhans elaborates on the bear case:

The [$60 million] upfront payment from [Salix Pharmaceuticals] for Relistor was a gift, but that's old news now and the company will surely eat up that cash. Relistor won't be bringing in much revenue even with expanded approval in April 2012, and the PSMA vaccine has been pickling in phase I for at least four years already. At least the company had the good taste to drop their sham virology program.

What do you think about Progenics, or any other stock for that matter? If you want to retire rich, you need to protect your portfolio from any undue risk. Staying away from dangerous stocks is crucial to securing your financial future, and on Motley Fool CAPS, thousands of investors are working every day to flag them. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!

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At the time thisarticle was published Fool contributor Brian Pacampara owns no position in any of the companies mentioned. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Fool's disclosure policy always gets a perfect score.

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