Hot Topic's Dividend X-ray
Not all dividends are created equal. Here, we'll do a top-to-bottom analysis of a given company to understand the quality of its dividend and see how that's changed over the past five years.
The company we're looking at today is Hot Topic (NAS: HOTT) which yields 4.2%.
Hot Topic is a retailer of clothes for teens. Like competitors American Eagle (NYS: AEO) and Abercrombie & Fitch (NYS: ANF) , the company has been hurting with the weak economy and the large amount of unemployed young people. Hot Topic has also fallen out of fashion the past few years.
To evaluate the quality of a dividend, the first thing to consider is whether the company has paid a dividend consistently over the past five years, and, if so, how much has it grown.
Hot Topic first started paying a dividend in 2010 with a $1 special dividend and a $0.07 quarterly dividend.
To understand how safe a dividend is, we use three crucial tools, the first of which is:
- The interest coverage ratio, or the number of times interest is earned, which is calculated by earnings before interest and taxes, divided by interest expense. The interest coverage ratio measures a company's ability to pay the interest on its debt. A ratio less than 1.5 is questionable; a number less than 1 means the company is not bringing in enough money to cover its interest expenses.
Hot Topic has no debt and as such has no interest to cover.
The other tools we use to evaluate the safety of a dividend are:
- The EPS payout ratio, or dividends per share divided by earnings per share. The EPS payout ratio measures the percentage of earnings that go toward paying the dividend. A ratio greater than 80% is worrisome.
- The FCF payout ratio, or dividends per share divided by free cash flow per share. Earnings alone don't always paint a complete picture of a business's health. The FCF payout ratio measures the percent of free cash flow devoted toward paying the dividend. Again, a ratio greater than 80% could be a red flag.
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
Hot Topic's payout ratio has been volatile in its short history.
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