Why are investors willing to pay only 10 times earnings for some stocks, but 20, 50, even 100 times earnings for others?
The short answer: growth. Companies that can grow their earnings meaningfully could make lofty current P/E ratios look cheap in hindsight.
Of course, any company can promise a rosy, growth-rich future. Figuring out which companies can actually deliver is far trickier. In this series, I take the first step by identifying companies that have put up the best growth track records in their respective sectors.
Below, I've listed the top sales growers in thrifts and mortgage finance over the last five years. Here's how to interpret each data column.
Five-year sales growth: I rank each company's sales growth, to capture its pure trailing expansion without regard to the vagaries of earnings.
Five-year EPS growth: Since sales growth means nothing if it doesn't ultimately fall to the bottom line, I've also included each company's five-year trailing EPS growth rate.
Five-year analyst estimates: This column shows us how much EPS growth analysts expect over the next five years. Just keep in mind that analysts tend to grossly overestimate a company's prospects.
Five-year ROE range:Return on equity basically shows you how efficiently a bank can use its balance sheet to generate profits. We want banks that can do a lot with a little. By looking at the five-year range, we can start to gauge both the power and the consistency of a bank's profit engine.
5-Year Sales Growth
5-Year EPS Growth
5-Year Analyst Estimates
5-Year ROE Range
First Niagara Financial Group (NAS: FNFG)
3.8% / 6.7%
Oritani Financial (NAS: ORIT)
1.9% / 5.2%
People's United Financial (NAS: PBCT)
1.5% / 4.8%
New York Community Bancorp (NYS: NYB)
1% / 11.1%
Roma Financial (NAS: ROMA)
1.7% / 3.2%
Viewpoint Financial Group (NAS: VPFG)
(4.4%) / 7.5%
United Financial Bancorp (NAS: UBNK)
2.5% / 4.8%
Source: S&P Capital IQ. N/A = not applicable; analyst estimates that are N/A result from lack of analyst coverage.
Use the table above as a first step to help you generate ideas for your own further research. Once you identify stocks worth a closer look, the following three steps will help you further assess their growth prospects:
Carefully study the table for possible danger signs, such as high sales growth but low EPS growth, analyst growth expectations significantly trailing past growth, and low ROE figures. Then follow the trail. For example, of the banks with applicable data, note that only Oritani and United Financial Bancorp have EPS growth above their sales growth. Also, notice that analysts expect outsize future growth from First Niagara.
Find out how the company achieved its prior growth: organically, or via acquisition? Can it sustain that previous growth? Acquisitions have certainly played a role for our fastest grower, First Niagara.
Pay attention to how management plans to implement its growth plans. Does its strategy seem prudent and plausible to you?
Remember: The more profitable, efficient, and predictable growth a company can achieve, the more we investors should be willing to pay.
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At the time thisarticle was published Anand Chokkavelu doesn't own shares of any company mentioned. You can follow his thoughts on Twitter. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.