Greek Default: Analysts Don't Ask "When?" but "How?"
For over a year now, the world has been grappling with the possibility of a credit default by Greece -- today, analysts and the markets say that a default in some form is inevitable. The question analysts are now asking is whether it will be "orderly," with some arguing that such a thing could be a big relief to the markets.
What is an "orderly default"? The main concern, according to a report from MarketWatch, is protecting "banks and other investors holding the debt while keeping the crisis from spreading to other nations in the currency bloc." This means a restructuring of Athen's debt with specific terms, while keeping banks properly capitalized when they have to write down the Greek debt on their books.
"The markets have already figured out Greece is defaulting; that's what all the bond spreads tell you ... What they are really worried about is whether the system in Europe will get impaired," said Jason Pride of Glenmede Investment and Wealth Management.
"I think the world can absorb an orderly default of Greece at this point, and I think it would be a great relief to the market when it actually takes place. I think investors should be positioned opportunistically for that," chief market strategist at LPL Financial Jeff Kleintop told MarketWatch.
Analysts believe that if the markets positively responded to an orderly Greek default, markets could see a shift away from the flight to safety. Kleintop said, "We can get a 10% rally in the stock market on an orderly default in Greece ... Treasury prices and the dollar could fall as capital flows away from safer assets, lifting prices of commodities priced in the greenback."
For a look at U.S. stocks with high exposure to Europe, The Street created a list of the top 10 U.S. stocks that derive a big portion of their revenue from Europe.
Do you think these stocks would rally on an orderly Greek default? (Click here to access free, interactive tools to analyze these ideas.)
1. Edwards Life Sciences (NYS: EW) : Edwards Lifesciences Corp. a leader in advanced cardiovascular disease treatments, is the number-one heart valve company in the world and the global leader in acute hemodynamic monitoring. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif. Revenue from Europe Segment: $139.5 million, or 34.5% of total revenue, according to Edwards Life Sciences' latest earnings release. Overall, the company had $404.5 million in revenue during the first quarter.
2. Paccar (NAS: PCAR) : PACCAR is a global technology leader in the design, manufacture and customer support of high-quality light-, medium- and heavy-duty trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, DAF and Foden nameplates. Revenue from Europe Segment: $1.18 billion, or 36% of total revenue, according to the company's first-quarter earnings report. Overall, Paccar had sales of $3.28 billion in the first quarter.
3. Dow Chemical (NYS: DOW) : Dow Chemical Company is a science and technology company that provides innovative chemical, plastic and agricultural products and services to many essential consumer markets. Revenue from Europe Segment: $5.36 billion, or 36.4% of total revenue, came from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, according to Dow's first-quarter earnings report. Overall, Dow Chemical had revenue of $14.7 billion in the quarter.
4. Pall (NYS: PLL) : Pall Corporation is a leading supplier of fine filters, principally made by the Company using its proprietary filter media, and other fluid clarification and separations equipment for the removal of solid, liquid and gaseous contaminants from a wide variety of liquids and gases. Revenue from Europe Segment: $240.4 million, or 37.3% of total revenue, according to Pall's fiscal second-quarter earnings release. Overall, Pall had revenue of $645.2 million in the quarter.
5. Lexmark International (NYS: LXK) : Lexmark International,, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and supply of printing, imaging, document workflow, and content management solutions for offices in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, the Pacific Rim, and the Caribbean. Revenue from Europe Segment: $389.5 million, or 37.7% of total revenue, came from Europe, the Middle East and Africa, according to Lexmark's first-quarter earnings release. Overall, Lexmark had revenue of $1.03 billion in the quarter.
6. Philip Morris International (NYS: PM) : Philip Morris International is the leading international tobacco company, with products sold in over 160 countries. They own 7 of the top 15 brands in the world and have a strong mix of international and local products that seek to appeal to a wide array of adult smokers. Revenue from Europe Segment: $6.41 billion, or 38.8% of total revenue, before considering excise taxes on the product, according to the company's first-quarter earnings results. Overall, Philip Morris had $16.5 billion in sales during the quarter before excise taxes.
7. McDonald's (NYS: MCD) : McDonald's Corporation develops, operates, franchises and services a worldwide system of restaurants that prepare, assemble, package and sell a limited menu of value-priced foods. The company operates primarily in the quick-service hamburger restaurant business. Revenue from Europe Segment: $2.4 billion, or 39.9% of total revenue, according to McDonald's first-quarter earnings report. Overall, the restaurant operator had revenue of $6.1 billion.
8. Molson Coors (NYS: TAP) : Molson Coors Brewing Company is world's fifth-largest global brewer. The company has 15,000 employees worldwide, 18 breweries, and a broad portfolio of over 40 brands, including Molson Canadian, Coors Light and Carling. Revenue from Europe Segment: $274.7 million, or 41.1% of total revenue, came from the United Kingdom, according to Molson Coors' first-quarter earnings release. The company reports sales in three segments: U.S., U.K., and Canada.
9. Owens-Illinois (NYS: OI) : The company produces glass containers for beer, ready-to-drink low alcohol refreshers, spirits, wine, food, tea, juice, and pharmaceuticals, as well as for soft drinks and other non-alcoholic beverages, including returnable/refillable glass containers. Its customers include the manufacturers and marketers of glass packaged products, such as brewers, wine vintners, distillers, and food producers. Revenue from Europe Segment: $698 million, or 41.3% of total revenue, according to Owens-Illinois' first-quarter earnings release. Overall, the company had $1.72 billion in revenue during the quarter.
10. Electronic Arts (NAS: ERTS) : Electronic Arts operates in two principal business segments globally: EA Core business segment: creation, marketing and distribution of entertainment software and the EA.com business segment: creation, marketing and distribution of entertainment software which can be played or sold online. Revenue from Europe Segment: $507 million, or 46.5% of total revenue, according to EA's latest earnings release. Overall, the company had $1.09 billion in revenue during the fiscal fourth quarter.
Interactive Chart: Press Play to compare changes in analyst ratings over the last two years for the stocks mentioned above. Analyst ratings sourced from Zacks Investment Research.
Kapitall's Alexander Crawford does not own any of the shares mentioned above.
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