1-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Green Mountain?
Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, specialty coffee brewer Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NAS: GMCR) has received the dreaded one-star ranking.
With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Green Mountain's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.
Green Mountain facts
Headquarters (Founded) | Waterbury, Vt. (1981) |
Market Cap | $15.1 billion |
Industry | Packaged foods |
Trailing-12-Month Revenue | $2.3 billion |
Management | CEO Lawrence Blanford (since 2007) CFO Frances Rathke (since 2003) |
Return on Equity (Average, Past 3 Years) | 19% |
Cash/Debt | $76.2 million / $429.9 million |
Competitors | Kraft Foods (NYS: KFT) Sara Lee (NYS: SLE) Starbucks (NAS: SBUX) |
Sources: Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor's) and Motley Fool CAPS.
On CAPS, 38% of the 1,311 members who have rated Green Mountain believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include All-Star zwalt99, who is ranked in the top 5% of our community, and Jeffrey2012.
Earlier this month, zwalt99 touched on Green Mountain's seemingly unsustainable valuation: "No one grows 100% per year forever, and this stock is priced like it will. ... [Free cash flow] is negative, and their main product (expensive coffee maker) is probably a fad."
In fact, Green Mountain currently sports a rather lofty P/E of 95.5. That represents a clear premium to industry peers like Kraft (20), Sara Lee (9), and Starbucks (25).
CAPS member Jeffrey2012 elaborates on the Green Mountain bear case:
I actually like this company since their business is phenomenal. They have prudently used their stock offerings to pay off debt and actually fund real growth.
The real danger is that they have grown way too fast for their own good at this time attracting way too much hot money in a dangerously scary market. With all the chatter about risk off trades and I'm sure plenty of foolish fund managers chasing this stock to the moon, they will most certainly sell to either lock in profits or sell because they missed the boat.
I'm downing this stock due to strictly valuations and not on business issues at all.
What do you think about Green Mountain, or any other stock for that matter? If you want to retire rich, you need to protect your portfolio from any undue risk. Staying away from dangerous stocks is crucial to securing your financial future, and on Motley Fool CAPS, thousands of investors are working every day to flag them. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!
Interested in another easy way to track Green Mountain?Add it to your watchlist.
At the time thisarticle was published Fool contributor Brian Pacampara owns no position in any of the companies mentioned. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of and creating a lurking gator position in Green Mountain. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Starbucks, and the Fool owns shares of it. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Fool's disclosure policy always gets a perfect score.
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