Read This Before You Think About Selling Force Protection

Should you sell Force Protection (NAS: FRPT) today?

The decision to sell a stock you've researched and followed for months or years is never easy. If you fall in love with your stock holdings, you risk becoming vulnerable to confirmation bias -- listening only to information that supports your theories, and rejecting any contradictions.

In 2004, longtime Fool Bill Mann called confirmation bias one of the most dangerous components of investing. This warning has helped my own personal investing throughout the Great Recession and the recent volatility throughout early August. In this series, I want to help you identify potential sell signs on popular stocks within our four-million-strong Fool.com community.

Today I'm laser-focused on Force Protection, ready to evaluate its price, valuation, margins, and liquidity. Let's get started!

Don't sell on price
Over the past 12 months, Force Protection is down 10.8% versus an S&P 500 return of 9.1%. Investors in Force Protection are no doubt disappointed with their returns, but is now the time to cut and run? Not necessarily. Short-term underperformance alone is not a sell sign. The market may be missing the critical element of your Force Protection investing thesis. For historical context, let's compare Force Protection's recent price to its 52-week and five-year highs. I've also included a few other businesses in the same or related industries.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

As you can see, Force Protection is down from its 52-week high. If you bought near the peak, now's the time to think back to why you bought it in the first place. If your reasons still hold true, you shouldn't sell based on this information alone.

Potential sell signs
First, let's look at the gross margins trend, which represents the amount of profit a company makes for each $1 in sales, after deducting all costs directly related to that sale. A deteriorating gross margin over time can indicate that competition has forced the company to lower prices, that it can't control costs, or that its whole industry's facing tough times. Here is Force Protection's gross margin over the past five years:

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Force Protection has been able to grow its gross margin, which tends to dictate a company's overall profitability. This is great news; however, Force Protection investors need to keep an eye on this over the coming quarters. If margins begin to dip, you'll want to know why.

Next, let's explore what other investors think about Force Protection. We love the contrarian view here at Fool.com, but we don't mind cheating off of our neighbors every once in a while. For this, we'll examine two metrics: Motley Fool CAPS ratings and short interest. The former tells us how Fool.com's 180,000-strong community of individual analysts rate the stock. The latter shows what proportion of investors are betting that the stock will fall. I'm including other peer companies once again for context.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

The Fool community is in the middle of the road on Force Protection. We typically like to see our stocks rated at four or five stars. Anything below that is a less-than-bullish indicator. I highly recommend you visit Force Protection's stock pitch page to see the verbatim reasons behind the ratings.

Here, short interest is at a mere 3.3%. This typically indicates few large institutional investors are betting against the stock.

Now, let's study Force Protection's debt situation, with a little help from the debt-to-equity ratio. This metric tells us how much debt the company's taken on, relative to its overall capital structure.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Force Protection has carried almost no debt over the past five years, and has since wiped it out completely. I consider a debt-to-equity ratio below 50% to be healthy, though it varies by industry. Force Protection is obviously below this level, at 0%.

The last metric I like to look at is the current ratio, which lets investors judge a company's short-term liquidity. If Force Protection had to convert its current assets to cash in one year, how many times over could the company cover its current liabilities? As of the last filing, Force Protection has a current ratio of 3.26. This is a healthy sign. I like to see companies with current ratios equal to or greater than 1.5.

Finally, it's highly beneficial to determine whether Force Protection belongs in your portfolio -- and to know how many similar businesses already occupy your stable of investments. If you haven't already, be sure to put your tickers into Fool.com's free portfolio tracker, My Watchlist. You can get started right away by clicking here to add Force Protection.

The final recap

Force Protection has failed only one of the quick tests that would make it a sell. This is great, but does it mean you should hold your Force Protection shares? Not necessarily. Just keep your eye on these trends over the coming quarters.

In order to do that, I strongly recommend clicking here to add Force Protection to My Watchlist to help you keep track of all of our ongoing coverage of the company.

At the time thisarticle was published Jeremy Phillipsdoes not own shares of the companies mentioned.Motley Fool newsletter serviceshave recommended buying shares of TransDigm Group. Try any of our Foolish newsletter servicesfree for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe thatconsidering a diverse range of insightsmakes us better investors. The Motley Fool has adisclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2011 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.