Does Wal-Mart Have High-Quality Earnings?
Wal-Mart (NYS: WMT) reported $16.7 billion in net income over the past four quarters. But how good are those earnings, really? Apparent profits on the income statement won't always tell you the whole story. Instead of looking just at the reported numbers, you need to find companies with authentic earnings power. So how do the earnings at Wal-Mart look?
It's earnings that count
In his book It's Earnings That Count, Hewitt Heiserman explains how to determine the quality of a company's profits. First, he points out four key limitations of the traditional income statement:
- Fixed capital investments are not fully expensed but rather depreciated over time.
- Investments in working capital are left off the income statement.
- Intangible growth-generating expenditures (such as advertising) are immediately expensed, even though they pay off over time.
- Retained earnings that are reinvested back in the business are not treated as an expense.
To compensate for these defects, Heiserman suggests that investors recalculate the income statement, creating both a defensive income statement and an enterprising statement. If a company can achieve profits on both statements, then that business has authentic earnings power. And that, Heiserman explains, can lead to safer and more profitable investments.
The defensive income statement
The defensive statement shows whether a company can self-fund and generate more cash from its operations than it uses. It looks like a regular statement, but it corrects for the first two limitations Heiserman pointed out. First, it expenses all capital investments in the year they're incurred. Second, it treats a company's investments in working capital as if they were expenses. This statement is stringent to provide the most conservative look into the company's operations.
The enterprising income statement
The enterprising statement reveals whether the business can create value and turn shareholder money into even greater profit over time. It corrects for the second two of Heiserman's limitations. First, it treats R&D and advertising costs as capital assets, depreciating them over their useful lives. Second, it treats equity capital held on the balance sheet as an expense.
Here are the statements for Wal-Mart and a few peers over the past few years, divided into enterprising and defensive profits, respectively. We're looking for solidly profitable numbers that grow over time, in order to show authentic earnings power.
|Wal-Mart||$2.03, $1.59||$1.91, ($0.42)||$1.53, $0.15||$1.24, ($0.45)|
|Costco (NAS: COST)||$1.24, ($0.75)||$0.77, ($0.54)||$1.11, ($1.11)||$0.90, ($1.75)|
|Dollar General (NYS: DG)||$1.12, $0.91||$0.74, $0.41||$0.03, ($0.56)||($0.65), ($0.67)|
|Family Dollar (NYS: FDO)||$3.31, $0.04||$2.48, $1.84||$2.08, $0.35||$2.31, $0.04|
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.
Wal-Mart shows consistently strong and growing enterprising profits and fluctuating defensive profits, as do Dollar General and Family Dollar. Costco shows improving defensive profits over the past few years.
The earnings power chart
For an illustrative depiction of a company's earnings power, Heiserman recommends graphing the earnings from the defensive and enterprising statements, plotting enterprising profits along the horizontal axis and defensive along the vertical. I've done this for Wal-Mart.
Ideally, you want to see the company generating both earnings figures in the upper right quadrant. A staircase of escalating earnings toward the upper right over time would be even better. That pattern would show that the company is consistently generating value and self-funding, two great signs of a winning company. Wal-Mart is generating plenty of enterprising profits, but defensive profits have fluctuated over the last few years. Still it seems to have made some steps in the right direction (upward right) in recent years, according to the Earnings Power Chart.
Foolish bottom line
The enterprising and defensive statements can provide you some key insights into a company's earnings power and quality. Just because a company doesn't make it into the upper right quadrant, that doesn't mean it can't be a good investment. But if it isn't at least moving toward the upper right, you'll want to dig in deeper to find out why.
At the time this article was published Jim Royal, Ph.D., owns no shares in any company mentioned here. The Motley Fool owns shares of Costco and Wal-Mart.Motley Fool newsletter serviceshave recommended buying shares of Wal-Mart and Costco and creating a diagonal call position in Wal-Mart. Try any of our Foolish newsletter servicesfree for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe thatconsidering a diverse range of insightsmakes us better investors. The Motley Fool has adisclosure policy.
Copyright © 1995 - 2011 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.