Is US Airways the Perfect Stock?
Every investor would love to stumble upon the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that provides everything you could possibly want?
One thing's for sure: You'll never discover truly great investments unless you actively look for them. Let's discuss the ideal qualities of a perfect stock, then decide if US Airways (NYS: LCC) fits the bill.
The quest for perfection
Stocks that look great based on one factor may prove horrible elsewhere, making due diligence a crucial part of your investing research. The best stocks excel in many different areas, including these important factors:
With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at US Airways.
What We Want to See
Pass or Fail?
|Growth||5-year annual revenue growth > 15%||6.2%||Fail|
|1-year revenue growth > 12%||12.4%||Pass|
|Margins||Gross margin > 35%||19.7%||Fail|
|Net margin > 15%||1.9%||Fail|
|Balance sheet||Debt to equity < 50%||7,118%||Fail|
|Current ratio > 1.3||0.99||Fail|
|Opportunities||Return on equity > 15%||NM||NM|
|Valuation||Normalized P/E < 20||6.33||Pass|
|Dividends||Current yield > 2%||0%||Fail|
|5-year dividend growth > 10%||0%||Fail|
|Total Score||2 out of 9|
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. NM = not meaningful due to negative shareholder equity. Total score = number of passes.
US Airways isn't flying high with a score of just two points. Despite a recent bounce, the airline has suffered greatly from turbulence that has affected the entire industry.
2010 was actually a strong year for airlines. Unprecedented levels of fee revenue added up to billions in profits for the industry, which had better earnings in the year's first nine months than in any full year in more than a decade.
But as has always happened in the past, those good times appear to be coming to an end. Fuel costs have risen by almost half over year-ago levels at US Airways, and margins will inevitably get hit as a result. In the first quarter, Delta Air Lines (NYS: DAL) , United Continental (NYS: UAL) , and AMR's (NYS: AMR) American all reported losses. Moreover, insiders appear to be jumping ship, with insider sales taking place across the industry without any buying activity.
It's true that some airlines, including Southwest (NYS: LUV) , JetBlue (NAS: JBLU) , and Alaska Air (NYS: ALK) , have managed to stay profitable despite these trends. But while US Airways isn't at the bottom of the barrel in the industry, it lacks loyalty among its customers. That's why despite encouraging revenue and traffic numbers for July, US Airways has seen its shares plummet so far this year.
Few airline stocks look anything close to perfect right now, and US Airways is no exception. You'd do well to follow Warren Buffett's advice and steer clear of the airline sector right now.
No stock is a sure thing, but some stocks are a lot closer to perfect than others. By looking for the perfect stock, you'll go a long way toward improving your investing prowess and learning how to separate out the best investments from the rest.
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At the time this article was published Fool contributorDan Caplingerdoesn't own shares of the companies mentioned in this article.Motley Fool newsletter serviceshave recommended buying shares of Southwest Airlines. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Fool has adisclosure policy.
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