Tempur-Pedic Shares Popped: What You Need to Know

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of space-age mattress maker Tempur-Pedic (NYS: TPX) were looking pretty comfortable today despite the choppy market, as they rose as much as 13% on heavier-than-average volume.

So what: If I were to write a recipe book for cooking up stock market gains, the very first mixture would be two parts current-quarter expectation toppers and two parts raised guidance. It's almost guaranteed to do the trick. For Tempur-Pedic, second-quarter sales of $342 million were up 30% from last year, while earnings per share of $0.76 jumped 65%. Analysts were expecting $0.67 in EPS on $322 million in revenue.

As for guidance, the company bumped its full-year outlook to revenue and per-share profit of $1.39 billion and $3.11 at the respective midpoints. Wall Street estimates had been set at $1.35 billion in revenue and $2.95 in EPS.

As if all of that wasn't enough, Tempur-Pedic also sprinkled a little powdered sugar on top of this tasty quarterly concoction by unveiling a new $200 million share-repurchase program.

Now what: Investors may be happy today, but it's not like they didn't already have a high opinion of Tempur-Pedic. Following today's move, the stock now trades at roughly 24 times management's new earnings guidance. If the company can maintain recent growth rates, that could turn out to be a pretty reasonable price. However, if growth levels off -- and it's expected to -- the best we may be able to say is that this is a fair price for the stock.

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