Face-Off on Stocks: Hershey, American Greetings, Blue Nile
Hershey (HSY), the leading U.S. candy company; American Greetings (AM), the largest publicly traded greeting card company; and fast-growing online jewelry retailer Blue Nile (NILE) all stand to benefit from a rebound in Valentine's Day sales. Indeed, IBISWorld expects sales linked to Cupid's holiday to jump nearly 6% year-over-year to $18.6 billion.
However, as always, whether shares in these companies are attractive at current levels is a matter of debate.
Hershey's stock is up 33% over the last year vs. a 24% gain for the S&P 500 ($INX), and yet the relative valuation remains favorable on a forward earnings basis. Return on equity is a robust 60%, and ample cash generation makes the 2.7% yield on the dividend reliable. Of more concern are surging supply costs. Sugar futures are at an all-time high, and energy is creeping up, too. That leads some investors to worry that the confectioner's margins have no place to go but down.
American Greetings' sales have been like a slowly melting iceberg for years. The company has gone from $2 billion in revenue a decade ago to about $1.5 billion today -- but it may have finally arrested that slide. The stock offers deep discounts to its own five-year average on both a forward and trailing earnings basis. It also sports a generous dividend yield of 2.6%. On the other hand, shares are volatile and heavily shorted by professional investors, making American Greetings look either cheap -- or cheap for a reason.
Blue Nile's stock was on a tear up until missing Wall Street's quarterly earnings estimates in early February. The online retailer disappointed traders with its outlook, too. But the stock isn't is volatile as recent price action would suggests, and it has an enviably high return on equity. Analysts forecast the company to generate a compound annual growth rate of nearly 20% over the next five years. The question for investors is whether that growth rate is torrid enough to justify paying more than 40 times forward earnings.
For more on the bull and bear cases on Hershey, American Greetings and Blue Nile, see Face-Off on Stocks above.