Housing Market 2011 Forecast: The Mortgage Blogger
What will the New Year hold for the U.S. housing market? It depends on who you ask. That's why AOL Real Estate has assembled an all-star panel of real estate mavens and moguls to discuss the questions that matter most to consumers. Should you buy, rent, sell or renovate in 2011? Will home values improve? And which way will mortgages rates turn?
In this edition, we chat with Paul Jackson, publisher of HousingWire magazine.
Paul Jackson is the publisher of Dallas-based Housing Wire Magazine, the largest media platform of news and views on the multi-trillion-dollar mortgage finance industry. HW was launched as a blog in 2006, has more than 4 million readers per year and is still growing exponentially despite the economic crisis--or maybe because of it. We asked Jackson for his 2011 predictions.
AOL Real Estate: Will the market improve in 2011?
Jackson: In many ways, U.S. housing circa 2011 is going to be a whole lot of deja vu, all over again. A glut of foreclosures remain on the horizon, with roughly 1 million foreclosures in 2010 and another 1 million or so foreclosures forecast to hit the books in 2011.
Look for home prices nationally to fall 8% to 10% further next year, as distressed sales again rise relative to the traditional retail mix, and as prices have yet to revert to their historical means.
AOL Real Estate: Does GSE really spell trouble?
Jackson: 2011 will also likely be the 'year of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.' These wards of the state are a front-burner agenda item for a newly-minted Congress, which is likely to begin earnest debate regarding the future of these behemoths--and, by extension, the future of U.S. housing finance--during the first quarter of next year.
AOL Real Estate: Will these low interest rates last forever?
Jackson: They aren't going much lower. If anything, they could get much higher starting in the middle of next year. In other words: A housing recovery isn't likely for 2011, no matter what the NAR's Lawrence Yun says. 2012? Time will tell, but clearing any market is a pretty well defined pre-condition for recovery. I don't think we get there next year.