The Market's Next Likely Catalyst: Holiday Sales [Video]
The market enters the week looking to reverse its biggest slide in three months, but a second week of churning would hardly be a surprise, says Jason Weisberg, managing director at Seaport Securities. What's more interesting to Weisberg is that Black Friday is fast approaching, and so naturally traders are already keying on holiday sales as the next potential catalyst to propel stocks on to strong year-end gains.
The week's economic news -- including leading indicators, inflation, retail sales, production and business inventories -- isn't nearly so important as the slew of retail earnings and outlooks hitting the market. Wal-Mart (WMT), Target (TGT), Gap (GPS) and Sears (SHLD) are just a few of the retailers reporting third-quarter results in the days ahead.
"The market's entitled to take a breather," Weisberg says. "We're up some 2,000 points on the Dow since the July low. It's OK to take a break." What really matters, notes Weisberg, is a strong holiday selling season. That could pole-vault the market to new highs, making Dow 12,000 by year-end well within reach, he says.
"The meaty data point that everyone will be looking at next is holiday sales," Weisberg says. "Not because so much of how Target or Wal-Mart is going to do in the next 12 months, but as a true gauge of whether consumer spending is back."
For more on Weisberg's view from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYX), see the video above.
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