Phosphorus a food supply time bomb?

Tom Barlow
Updated

Without phosphorus, plants and animals couldn't function, so I find it troubling to read that production of the element is projected to peak in 2035, and that we are already experiencing market fluctuations, including a price spike in 2008 to almost $450 a ton. It's also one of the nutrients blamed for water pollution, algal blooms and dead zones in lakes and ponds.



A new paper by Dana Cornell of Linköping University examines the coming phosphorus shortage in great detail. Among the most salient points:

  • 90% of all mined phosphorus comes from five countries, including China, the U.S. and the politically-unstable Western Sahara.

  • The U.S. is already importing African phosphorus.

  • For every ton of phosphate mined, five tons of radioactive waste is produced.

  • Only 20% of mined phosphate reaches our fork.

  • Biofuels will require phosphorus.

  • Although Africa has huge deposits, 75% of its agricultural soil remains under-fertilized.

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