Commercial Mortgage Defaults Up, and You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet!

Since HousingWatch began, many of us have written about what some experts fear will be the next big real estate crisis: the anticipated (dreaded?) implosion of the commercial real estate market. So, this bit of news from Real Capital Analytics ought not to come as a surprise.

For the fourth quarter of 2009, the commercial mortgage default rate in the United States doubled! Well, to be totally honest, it more than doubled, but I guess I was trying to ease the blow somewhat.

But since we're now being absolutely honest with one another, the figures show the commercial default rate surged from 1.6 percent a year before, to 3.8 percent for the period covered by this latest report.