Job market should improve -- in 2014

unemployedSimple question: Can you hold out until 2014 when, according to a newly released Rutgers University report, the job market in the U.S. will likely be finally and fully recovered from the horrible real estate caused recession that tightly gripped the nation beginning in 2007?

Well, excuse the pun, but whether you think you can or can't may be academic: The Rutgers report apparently leaves little room for alternative outcomes.

According to the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Safety, it could take until 2014 just to gain back the estimated 8.5 million jobs in the private sector that have disappeared.

And that only brings employment in 2014 back to where it was in 2007.

Trying to see this more as a glass is half full rather than half empty sort of moment, James Hughes, dean of the Bloustein School, tells the Newark Star Ledger, "We had to digest a lot of bad news. Some of the worst has passed us."

A somewhat related Associated Press story reports that the Federal Reserve expects the unemployment rate to stay high the next few years "because recession-scarred Americans are likely to stay cautious."

And just how accurate is the long range reporting likely to be?

A lot depends, as the Rutgers reports mentions, on whether once the federal government starts really backing out of its support for the real estate market, the market will be able to stand on its own. You will find various experts offering very different and contrasting views on that one.

And, there is the very real threat , as has been widely reported, of a coming implosion of the commercial real estate market because so many commercial real estate mortgages are on the brink of possible foreclosure.

Should that happen, all bets are off on how long it will take for the job market in the U.S. to fully recover.

Charles Feldman is a journalist, media consultant and co-author of the book, "No Time To Think-The Menace of Media Speed and the 24-hour News Cycle." He's written about real estate related issues for several years.

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