Pundits are optimistic about the second half

The market is looking for signs of recovery in the second half of the year. This is not like the search for intelligent life in the universe, but it's awfully close.

For one thing, much bad news looms on the horizon. Unemployment is expected to top 10 percent sometime before labor day. Heck, even the White House has admitted to this. Defaults on commercial real estate loans have hit a 15-year high. States are still in desperate financial shape. California may have to pay bills with IOUs and other states such as New Jersey are being forced to raise taxes to balance their budgets. Meanwhile, oil prices are starting to climb.