16 named storms have formed in the Atlantic this season. What else could be brewing?
After a flurry of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin in recent weeks, AccuWeather meteorologists are continuing to keep a watchful eye around the clock for what may be coming up next in the tropics. With recently named Tropical Storm Philippe, the Atlantic basin has now churned out 16 named storms this season.
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Looking back at historical data, late September typically features a downward turn in overall tropical activity, but that may not be the case this season, as warm Atlantic water could still help fuel potential activity.
Tropical waves rolling off the coast of Africa continue to highlight one of the main focus areas for tropical development through the remainder of the month, but as the calendar rolls into the month of October, the focus area begins to shift a little closer to home across the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic Ocean.
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In the meantime, the Atlantic's main development region, or "MDR" as it is commonly referred to, continues to remain the focal point for active and potential activity across the basin.
Luckily, steering winds in the atmosphere look to favor a storm track that would not put the mainland United States in the path of any activity for a little while.
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Although there is a potential window for Tropical Storm Philippe to strengthen in the coming days, steering winds in the Atlantic Ocean should keep this storm out to sea in the coming days.
Right behind Philippe, yet another tropical wave may face the same fate in the upcoming week. This tropical wave, which has been upgraded to a high chance for development by our expert meteorologists would also likely take a turn to the north if it were to develop between September 26-29.
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The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is Rina.
Although there are no impending tropical threats in the western Atlantic Ocean in the coming days, this is the time of year where "home-brewed" systems can be worth watching closely. Similar to Tropical Storm Ophelia, these systems can spin up near the coastline and only offer limited time for preparation before moving inland.
These home-brewed storms oftentimes form along fronts that sag into the southeastern United States and stall out over the warm ocean waters. Looking ahead later in the week, this may be something to watch closely as showers and thunderstorms coalesce over the Gulf of Mexico.
A front is expected to stall out along the Gulf coast and across Florida, which will help to boost shower and thunderstorm activity across the Sunshine State later this week. While the rain will be beneficial to fight expanding drought conditions along Florida's Gulf coast, this cluster of unsettled weather may bear watching closely for development around the end of the month.
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A unique weather setup featuring a strong area of high pressure across the Northeast and a stalled front across the Southeast could pose a risk for clusters of showers and thunderstorms to become better organized around the end of the month. But in the meantime, effects from this area of high pressure and stalled front will be felt in the form of persistent chilly onshore winds along the East Coast.
With many beaches from the Outer Banks to southern New England taking a beating from Ophelia's onshore winds this past week, strong northeast winds will continue to churn up the Atlantic waters, prolonging some of the ongoing issues.
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If the calendar approaching October doesn't signal the end of beach season for many cities along the East Coast, the blustery northeast wind, temperatures well below the historical average and rough surf will certainly send a reminder that the season is rapidly approaching its end.
As always, AccuWeather meteorologists will be closely monitoring the activity along the East Coast of the U.S. in the coming days and beyond.
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