Who’s #1? Ranking the Top 2024 Tour de France Contenders
This is the second edition of Bicycling’s Power Rankings for the 2024 Men’s Tour de France, where we rank the top contenders leading up to July’s race. This continuously updated list will give you an in-depth look at the riders that have the best shot to stand atop the podium at the end of the Tour—and how they’re performing in the races leading up to July.
These rankings will be constantly refreshed, so you can see who’s up and who’s down on the road to the 2024 Tour de France.
The 2024 Tour de France is expected to bring together the sport’s four best grand tour riders: Denmark’s Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), winner of the last two Tours de France; Slovenia’s Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates), winner of the 2020 and 2021 Tours de France; Belgium’s Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quick Step), winner of the 2022 Vuelta a España; and Slovenia’s Primož Roglič (BORA-hansgrohe), a 3-time winner of the Vuelta and the winner of last year’s Giro d’Italia.
Each rider is taking a different path to the Tour de France, with each choosing to mix race days with extended periods of time spread all over Europe at training camps–either alone or with their teammates. And while some of their paths will cross at certain races throughout the first half of the season, they won’t all race together until the Tour.
Three of the five riders in our last power ranking haven’t raced since, but the other two made headlines in an important Spanish stage race–one for his domination and the other for his continued improvement.
Below, you’ll find the first edition of Bicycling’s Men’s Tour de France Power Rankings.
Jonas Vingegaard
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Race Days: 11
Race Wins: 7
Best Result: 1st-place, General Classification - Tirreno-Adriatico
Next Race: Tour of the Basque Country, April 1-6
The Tour’s 2-time defending champion, Vingegaard hasn’t raced since winning two stages and the General Classification at the Tirreno-Adriatico stage race in March. Instead of racing, the Dane stayed in Italy to recon the opening stages of the upcoming Tour de France (the race is starting in Italy) [Link to TDF Course Overview.], and then went to his home in Lugano, Switzerland to train for the next race on his program, the Tour of the Basque Country, where he’ll race for the first time against his former teammate, Slovenia’s Primož Roglič (BORA-hansgrohe).
Tadej Pogačar
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Race Days: 9
Race Wins: 6
Best Result: 1st-place, General Classficiation - Volta Ciclista a Catalunya
Next Race: Liège-Bastogne-Liège, April 21
Winner of back-to-back Tours in 2020 and 2021–and runner-up to Vingegaard in 2022 and 2023–Pogačar has cemented his place as the Dane’s top challenger with a third-place finish in last Saturday’s Milan-Sanremo and the overall victory at last week’s Volta Ciclista a Catalunya.
The Slovenian left no doubt as to who was the strongest rider in Catalunya, finishing second in an uphill sprint on Stage 1 and then blowing the doors off everyone on back-to-back summit finishes on Stages 2 and 3.
At that point, with more than a 2-minute lead, most riders would have shifted into defense-mode. But not Pogačar, who said earlier in the week that one of his career goals is to win all seven of the sport’s most important week-long stage races. Instead of riding to defend his lead, Pog continued to attack, winning Saturday’s Stage 6–which took the race over the monstrous Coll de Pradell–and then just for good measure, Sunday’s Stage 7–in a small group sprint.
By the end of the week Pogačar had a 3:41 advantage over the race’s next-best rider–Spain’s Mikel Landa (Soudal-Quick Step). He’s now won six races in only nine days of racing. Wow.
That could have been enough of a performance to vault him over Vingegaard at the top of our ranking, but here’s the thing: Pogačar’s first goal of the season is May’s Giro d’Italia, a race which could leave the Slovenian a bit depleted heading into the Tour. No one has won the Giro and the Tour de France in the same season since Italy’s Marco Pantani in 1998, and those were–for many reasons–different days.
But we can’t ignore how strong the Slovenian is currently (a rider competing against him last week said that everyone is basically racing for second-place whenever he shows up on the start list), and if he maintains–or even improves upon–his current level of fitness, the Italian grand tour will be his race to lose.
Remco Evenepoel
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Race Days: 14
Race Wins: 4
Best Result: 2nd place, General Classification - Paris-Nice
Next Race: Tour of the Basque Country, April 1-6
Like Vingegaard, Evenepoel hasn’t raced since our first power ranking. And like Vingegaard, he stuck around after his last race–France’s Paris-Nice–to take an early look at some key stages in the upcoming Tour de France.
But while Vingegaard focused on the Tour’s opening stages, Evenepoel focused on the Tour’s final weekend, which takes place in and around Nice.
While Evenepoel was training, his team’s big off-season signing, Spain’s Mikel Landa, raced well at the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya. The Spaniard was by-far the best of the men trying to keep up with Pogačar in the mountains and finished second overall. That’s a good sign for Evenepoel and his team, which will be doing everything it can to measure up to the depth of teams like Visma and UAE at this year’s Tour.
Up next for the Belgian is Spain’s Tour of the Basque Country, where he’ll join forces with Landa to take on Vingegaard and Roglič. It will be interesting to see how Evenepoel approaches the race: he could do everything possible to win the overall, but a better move might be to save a little bit for the Ardennes classics that he’s slated to ride after leaving Spain.
Primož Roglič
Read the Complete Analysis
Race Days: 8
Race Wins: 0
Best Result: 3rd place, Stage 7, Paris-Nice
Next Race: Tour of the Basque Country, April 1-6
Roglič is the biggest unknown of the riders on this list. He’s raced just once–at Paris-Nice earlier this month–and didn’t do much to make anyone think he has the leg to challenge men like Vingegaard and Pogačar at the Tour.
But the Slovenian has not been shy about the fact that he is taking a slow and steady approach to preparing for the Tour de France, a strategy that could pay off for him if his younger rivals burn too many matches too early in the season.
His next race will be the Tour of the Basque Country. This will be Roglič’s biggest test so far, both because of the terrain–the Tour of the Basque Country is one of the hardest races of the season–and the competition–Vingegaard, Evenepoel, and Egan Bernal are all expected to start the race.
But here’s the good news: Roglič is a two-time winner of the event, and he knows these roads well. Anything other than a top-3 finish would be a disappointment.
Egan Bernal
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Race Days: 27
Race Wins: 0
Best Result: 3rd place, General Classficiation - Volta Ciclista a Catalunya
Next Race: Tour of the Basque Country, April 1-6
Bernal keeps piling on the race days, perhaps trying to make-up for the time he lost when a crash in early 2022 nearly ended his career.
The Colombian just finished third overall at the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya, his fourth stage race of the season, and scored his first WorldTour podium finish since 2021. That’s a big deal for a rider who wasn’t even sure if he’d race again–let alone be a contender in some of the sport’s biggest races.
But as much as we’re impressed with his consistent improvement so far this season, we’re more excited about the tenacity he’s displayed. Last year he seemed happy just to be racing again, but now he looks like he wants to start winning again–and we love it.
INEOS must love it as well, but the British team is still playing it safe with the Colombian, and they still haven’t announced which grand tour he’ll be targeting this summer. It will be either the Tour de France or the Vuelta a España, but our guess is that the team will ultimately send him to the Tour.
Under Consideration
A 3-time runner-up at the Tour of Spain, Spain’s Enric Mas (Movistar) has failed to finished the last two Tours de France. But he rode well in Catalunya, finishing fifth overall. If he keeps it up, he could be on track to equal (and possibly better) his fifth-place overall finish at the Tour in 2020.
Denmark’s Mattias Skjelmose (LIDL-Trek) hasn’t raced since winning a stage and finishing fourth overall at Paris-Nice. He’s next slated to race at the Tour of the Basque Country, where we’re eager to see how he does.
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