1 in 10 Sacramento Democratic voters snub Joe Biden in primary. Why so many?

Nearly one in 10 voters in Sacramento County’s Democratic primary election last month skipped the presidential race on their ballot, according to final election results.

That’s more than quadruple the rate of “undervotes” seen during the 2020 Democratic primary but similar to the rate seen during the 2012 election, which was the last time an incumbent Democrat ran for president without much viable opposition.

In addition to the “undervotes,” about 9% of Sacramento County Democratic voters cast a ballot for one of Joe Biden’s little-heralded challengers, with self-help author Marianne Williamson drawing the most votes.

All told, about 18%, or nearly one in five, Sacramento County Democratic primary voters did not vote for Joe Biden last month.

Before the election, analysts and pundits speculated that Biden may be losing support among Democrats, largely due to his support of Israel in their war with Hamas. Protests across the country have lambasted Biden from the left. In Michigan, a state with a high proportion of Arab American residents, about 100,000 voters cast ballots for “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary.

Paul Mitchell, vice president of bipartisan voting data firm Political Data Inc., said the undervotes in last month’s election reflect a lack of enthusiasm among some Democratic voters. But he said the data is not surprising, nor should it necessarily cause great concern among Biden supporters.

“The fact that it is almost exactly what we saw in 2012 is a sign of, ‘this is what we expected,’” he said. “And (Barack) Obama won reelection.”

In California, independent voters must request a Democratic ballot if they want to vote in the California Democratic presidential primary. According to an analysis by Mitchell, about 2,700 independents in Sacramento County requested a Democratic ballot this year, down from about 26,300 in 2020.

“That makes sense since the 2020 primary was a crazy, competitive primary, with a candidate who really appealed to a lot of left-leaning independents and younger voters,” Mitchell said.

Wesley Hussey, a professor of political science at Sacramento State, said it is too early to tell whether Democratic voters who are unenthusiastic about Biden will turn out and vote for him anyway in November.

“I see it in my classes. I see students who I don’t think will come around,” he said. “I’m not sure if that’s a critical mass.”

Biden will almost certainly carry California, so a lag in voter enthusiasm here would not be a direct threat to his reelection chances, thanks to the Electoral College system.

“The broader issue is: Is it enough of a concern in five or six battleground states that really determine who wins,” Hussey said.

Other places across the state also logged a high number of undervotes and votes for candidates other than Biden.

Roughly 7% to 12% of Democratic voters in California’s eight largest counties left their presidential ballot blank, wrote in an ineligible candidate or otherwise “undervoted,” according to a Bee review of voting records from each county. In addition, 9% to 13% of voters cast ballots for Democratic candidates other than Biden.

Los Angeles County saw the most dissent among urban areas, with about 25% of Democratic voters snubbing Biden on their ballots.

In Sacramento County, Democratic voters in lower-income areas and areas with a high amount of racial diversity were most likely to undervote or vote for someone other than Biden, according to The Bee’s analysis.

In one section of midtown, more than one in five Democratic voters skipped the presidential race on their ballot. In one section of Meadowview, more than one in three Democratic voters either skipped the race or voted for someone other than Biden.

By contrast, dissent against Biden among Democrats in higher-income areas like Land Park and East Sacramento was relatively minimal.

Mitchell said undervotes are often more common in lower-income areas. Hussey said those areas are more likely to be home to disaffected voters.

“Areas with a large number of young people are the most upset with an establishment candidate,” he said.