Trump and the Cubs had the same chance of winning

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The Chicago Cubs won the World Series late Wednesday night, ending a 108-year drought, and delighting the city of Chicago, long-suffering fans — and a bunch of superstitious Trump supporters.

The Cubs came back from a 3-1 Cleveland series lead to clinch the title in Game 7, an outcome so statistically unlikely that at one point, oddsmakers noted that Donald Trump had a better chance of winning the presidency than the Cubs did of landing the pennant. And then, of course, they did.

SEE ALSO: 32,000 People Tweeted @Cubs In The Minute After They Won World Series

On October 30, when the Cubs were down 1-3, Nate Silver's site FiveThirtyEight wrote that the team had a smaller chance of winning than Trump did (and this was before Clinton's numbers really started to dip), though it did point out that such a come-from-behind championship victory can and does happen. In fact, it did as recently as the Cleveland Cavaliers' win over the Golden State Warriors last summer. By October 31, Trump's chances of winning in 538's "polls-plus" model were exactly the same as the Cubs'.

Depending on which side you support, this is either a foreboding sign of our imminent doom — or great news! Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway certainly noticed.

(Please note that she is now saying that Trump would need a "miracle" to win.)

In other sports-election victory analogies, Trump's chance of victory was, at one point, about the same as a professional football kicker missing a 29-yard field goal. Guess what happened the same day the New York Times wrote that?

Kickers from both teams missed 24 and 27 yard field goals to leave the Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals game in a tie. The New York Times is currently putting Clinton's chances of losing the election at that of an NFL kicker missing a 36 yarder.

Of course, sports victory and election victory chances are very different things, and it's much more common to see fluke sports results than political ones. Statistically, a kicker might make a chip shot field goal 99 times out of 100, but every kick presents a brand new opportunity to screw up. Trump's election victory odds are based on numerous polls of thousands of people across the country. The chances that all of them are that wrong are much smaller. But, as we were reminded when the Cubs won their first World Series since 1908 (and when the British voted to leave the European Union, defying most major polls), nothing is impossible.

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World Series 2016: Inside the epic Game 7
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World Series 2016: Inside the epic Game 7
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Kris Bryant #17 and Addison Russell #27 of the Chicago Cubs celebrate after defeating the Cleveland Indians 8-7 in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Cubs win their first World Series in 108 years. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: A general view as the Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs stand for the national anthem prior to Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Tim Bradbury/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Kyle Hendricks #28 of the Chicago Cubs pitches in the fifth inning against the Cleveland Indians in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Francisco Lindor #12 of the Cleveland Indians reacts after tagging out Kyle Schwarber #12 of the Chicago Cubs as he attempts to stretch the play after hitting a single during the third inning in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Rajai Davis #20 of the Cleveland Indians celebrates after hitting a two-run home run during the eighth inning to tie the game 6-6 against the Chicago Cubs in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 2: Aroldis Chapman #54 of the Chicago Cubs pitches during Game 7 of the 2016 World Series against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on Wednesday, November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Brad Mangin/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Rajai Davis #20 of the Cleveland Indians celebrates as he runs the bases after hitting a two-run home run during the eighth inning to tie the game 6-6 against the Chicago Cubs in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Rajai Davis #20 of the Cleveland Indians celebrates with Brandon Guyer #6 after hitting a two-run home run during the eighth inning to tie the game 6-6 against the Chicago Cubs in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Kris Bryant #17 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after being walked during the fifth inning against the Cleveland Indians in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Kyle Schwarber #12 of the Chicago Cubs is taken out of the game for a pinch runner after he singles in the 10th inning against the Cleveland Indians in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Miguel Montero #47 of the Chicago Cubs hits a RBI single in the 10th inning against the Cleveland Indians in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Miguel Montero #47 of the Chicago Cubs hits a RBI single in the 10th inning against the Cleveland Indians in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Anthony Rizzo #44 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates after Rizzo scores a run in the 10th inning on a Miguel Montero #47 against the Cleveland Indians in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Ben Zobrist #18 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates after he hits a RBI double in the 10th inning against the Cleveland Indians in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Anthony Rizzo #44 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates with Jason Heyward #22 after Rizzo scores a run in the 10th inning on a Miguel Montero #47 against the Cleveland Indians in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Carl Edwards #6 of the Chicago Cubs pitches in the 10th inning against the Cleveland Indians in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: The Chicago Cubs celebrate after defeating the Cleveland Indians 8-7 in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Cubs win their first World Series in 108 years. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: The Chicago Cubs celebrate after winning 8-7 in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Nov 2, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo (44) celebrates after defeating the Cleveland Indians in game seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: The Chicago Cubs celebrate after defeating the Cleveland Indians 8-7 in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Cubs win their first World Series in 108 years. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: The Chicago Cubs celebrate after winning 8-7 in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: The Chicago Cubs celebrate after winning 8-7 against the Cleveland Indians in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Cubs win their first World Series in 108 years. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Nov 2, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant (17) celebrates after defeating the Cleveland Indians in game seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Anthony Rizzo #44, David Ross #3 and Jason Heyward #22 of the Chicago Cubs celebrate after defeating the Cleveland Indians 8-7 in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Cubs win their first World Series in 108 years. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Ben Zobrist #18 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates with the 2016 World Series Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award after the Chicago Cubs defeated the Cleveland Indians 8-7 in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Cubs win their first World Series in 108 years. (Photo by David J. Phillip-Pool/Getty Images)
Nov 2, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta celebrates in the clubhouse after defeating the Cleveland Indians in game seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
Nov 2, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Chicago Cubs catcher David Ross (3) is carried off the field after defeating the Cleveland Indians in game seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 2, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Chicago Cubs relief pitcher Carl Edwards (6) celebrates after defeating the Cleveland Indians in game seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 02: Ben Zobrist #18 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates with the 2016 World Series Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award after the Chicago Cubs defeated the Cleveland Indians 8-7 in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Cubs win their first World Series in 108 years. (Photo by David J. Phillip-Pool/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 2: Chicago Cubs fans celebrate in the stands after the Cubs defeated the Cleveland Indians in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on Wednesday, November 2, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by LG Patterson/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Nov 2, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Chicago Cubs outfielder Ben Zobrist celebrates after defeating the Cleveland Indians in game seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
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The post So, Trump And The Cubs Had The Same Chance Of Winning appeared first on Vocativ.

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