The Business Insider electoral projection: Clinton maintains a huge lead

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With less than 20 days remaining in the presidential race, the electoral map is beginning to harden.

And it's looking like a landslide win for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

Electoral college map 10 19 16Business Insider/Andy Kiersz

Since last week, seven swing states and one congressional district have shifted from our former projection. But, just one state was added to either Clinton or Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's total.

Using polling data from RealClearPolitics and Washington Post/Survey Monkey, Business Insider found that Clinton, as of this week, would lead Trump by 278-to-181 electoral votes in states that were either safe or likely bets to go in favor of either party's nominee. That alone would give Clinton more than the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the nomination. It's a slight difference from last week's projection, which showed Clinton with a 272-to-181 edge in the same categories.


Business Insider judged that a safe state was anywhere in which a candidate led by at least 8 percentage points, while a likely state was anywhere in which the nominee held a 4- to 8-point lead.

When including states leaning toward a candidate by 2 to 4 points, Clinton held a 322-to-187 advantage over Trump. Last week, Clinton was up 316-to-187 when including this category.

The only state swinging in favor of one of the two candidates that was previously not in their column was Nevada, which shifted from being a tossup to a state Clinton looks likely to win in less than three weeks.

Those tossups, any state in which the major-party nominees held a lead of less than 2 points, consisted of 29 electoral votes. Last week, the three states that were too close to call were Nevada, Ohio, and Arizona. This week, just Arizona and Ohio remain in that category.

The map comes on the heels of a brutal pair of weeks where a leaked tape of Trump from 2005 showed him making crude sexual remarks about women, which was followed by a score of women who came forward to say Trump had made unwanted sexual advances on them.

He has vehemently denied those claims, calling them "fiction."

The Manhattan billionaire is doubling-down on rhetoric that he might not accept the results of the election.

During Wednesday's final presidential debate, Trump was pressed by debate moderator Chris Wallace of Fox News on whether he would honor the election results despite his repeated suggestions recently that the election may be "rigged" against him.

Heated moments from Wednesday night's debate

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Clinton and Trump face off in the final presidential debate
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Clinton and Trump face off in the final presidential debate
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton speaks during the third and final US presidential debate with Republican nominee Donald Trump at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Paul J. Richards (Photo credit should read PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is seen on screens speaking during the final presidential debate with Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton at the University of Nevada October 19, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada. / AFP / Brendan Smialowski (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton begin their third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Blake
Republican nominee Donald Trump speaks during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Mark RALSTON (Photo credit should read MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images)
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton debates with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump during the third presidential debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016. (Mark Ralston/Pool via AP)
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / SAUL LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton speaks during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Robyn Beck (Photo credit should read ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump during the third presidential debate with Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton at UNLV in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
Republican nominee Donald Trump speaks during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Robyn Beck (Photo credit should read ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton speaks during the third presidential debate with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump at UNLV in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton wait to begin their final debate at the University of Nevada October 19, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada. / AFP / Brendan Smialowski (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)
Meg Whitman (C), Hewlett-Packard president and chief executive officer, and retired basketball player Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (2nd R) attend the third and final presidential debate between Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic contender Hillary Clinton at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas on October 19, 2016. / AFP / MANDEL NGAN (Photo credit should read MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)
US Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / SAUL LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump points toward Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton as he answers a question during the third presidential debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016. (AP Photo/John Locher)
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton speaks during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Robyn Beck (Photo credit should read ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton exchanges views Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump during the third presidential debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016. (AP Photo/John Locher)
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton listens to Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump during the third presidential debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / SAUL LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton answers a question during the third presidential debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016. (AP Photo/John Locher)
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks during the third presidential debate with Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton at UNLV in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump listens to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton during the third presidential debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton speaks during the third presidential debate with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump at UNLV in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks during the third and final debate with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton (not pictured) at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Debate moderator Chris Wallace smiles back at the audiencee before Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton keep their distance and do not shake hands at the start of the their third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Joe Raedle/Pool
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton speaks during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Robyn Beck (Photo credit should read ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton speaks as Republican nominee Donald Trump looks on during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Mark RALSTON (Photo credit should read MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images)
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (L) and US Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton arrive for the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / SAUL LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton (R) and Republican nominee Donald Trump arrive for the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Robyn BECK (Photo credit should read ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / SAUL LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton steps on stage to debate Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump during the third presidential debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016. (AP Photo/John Locher)
Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump listens as Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton speaks during their third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/David Becker
Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump adjusts his microphone while he listens as Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton speaks during their third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Rick Wilking
Donald Trump Jr. sits between his wife Vanessa (L) and his brother Eric Trump (R) during the third and final debate between Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Rick Wilking
Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks during the third and final debate with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton (not pictured) at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton walks onstage for the third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate with Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / SAUL LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton speaks during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Robyn Beck (Photo credit should read ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton arrive on stage for their final debate at the University of Nevada October 19, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada. / AFP / Brendan Smialowski (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump arrives on stage for the third and final presidential debate at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas on October 19, 2016. / AFP / MANDEL NGAN (Photo credit should read MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / SAUL LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican nominee Donald Trump speaks during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Robyn Beck (Photo credit should read ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / SAUL LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / SAUL LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton keep their distance and do not shake hands at the start of the their third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Joe Raedle/Pool
Chelsea Clinton, her father former U.S. president Bill Clinton, and her husband Marc Mezvinsky arrive before Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Melania Trump arrives for the third and final debate between Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Ivanka Trump takes her seat before the third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate between Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Blake
Melania Trump (R) greets vice presidential candidate Mike Pence before the third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate between Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Blake
Debate moderator Chris Wallace speaks prior to the third and final US presidential debate between Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Mark RALSTON (Photo credit should read MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images)
Eric Trump takes his seat before the third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate between Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Blake
Fox News modeator Chris Wallace speaks before the third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate between Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Blake
Actor Ted Danson and his wife actress Mary Steenburgen sit before Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., October 19, 2016. REUTERS/Mark Ralston/Pool
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton arrives for the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Robyn Beck (Photo credit should read ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican nominee Donald Trump gestures as Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton looks on during the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Robyn BECK (Photo credit should read ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton (R) and Republican nominee Donald Trump walk off the stage after the final presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Robyn Beck (Photo credit should read ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)
People watch the third presidential debate between presidential debate between US Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the Trump International Hotel October 19, 2016 in Washington, D.C. / AFP / ZACH GIBSON (Photo credit should read ZACH GIBSON/AFP/Getty Images)
People watch the third presidential debate between US Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is pictured at The Hawk 'n' Dove bar October 19, 2016 in Washington, D.C. / AFP / ZACH GIBSON (Photo credit should read ZACH GIBSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton waves from the stage following the third and final US presidential debate with Republican nominee Donald Trump (background) at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Paul J. Richards (Photo credit should read PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NV - OCTOBER 19: Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton walks off stage as Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump looks on during the third U.S. presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on October 19, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tonight is the final debate ahead of Election Day on November 8. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton departs the stage following the third and final US presidential debate with Republican nominee Donald Trump at the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 19, 2016. / AFP / Paul J. Richards (Photo credit should read PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NV - OCTOBER 19: Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (R) debates with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump during the third U.S. presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on October 19, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tonight is the final debate ahead of Election Day on November 8. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NV - OCTOBER 19: Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump gestures as he speaks during the third U.S. presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on October 19, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tonight is the final debate ahead of Election Day on November 8. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NV - OCTOBER 19: Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gestures to the crowd as she walks off stage as Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump smiles after the third U.S. presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on October 19, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tonight is the final debate ahead of Election Day on November 8. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
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"I will look at it at the time," Trump replied. "I'm not looking at anything now. I'll look at it at the time."

When pressed again, Trump said he would "keep you in suspense" regarding his decision to honor the November results.

On Thursday, he said he'd accept the results of the election "if I win."

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