Latest 2016 election polls: Here's who's leading between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

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Donald Trump has narrowed the gap with Hillary Clinton. But there is debate about how much the presidential race has tightened.

Among the four presidential candidates,RealClearPolitics puts Clinton ahead of Trump by less than one point, within the margin-of-error. But HuffPost Pollster gives Clinton a three-point lead. Both models show Trump closer to Clinton than he was a month ago. But he gets no more than forty percent of the vote in either projection.

Related: Hillary Clinton on the trail after pneumonia

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Hillary Clinton campaigning after pneumonia
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton gives a thumbs up as she boards her campaign plane in White Plains, New York, United States September 15, 2016, to resume her campaign schedule following a bout with pneumonia. REUTERS/Brian Snyder TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton boards her campaign plane in White Plains, New York, United States September 15, 2016, to resume her campaign schedule following a bout with pneumonia. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton pauses while speaking at a campaign rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, United States, September 15, 2016, after she resumed her campaign schedule following a bout with pneumonia. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton pauses while speaking at a campaign rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, United States, September 15, 2016, after she resumed her campaign schedule following a bout with pneumonia. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton waves after speaking at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute's 39th Annual Gala Dinner in Washington, DC, U.S. September 15, 2016. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute's 39th Annual Gala Dinner in Washington, DC, U.S. September 15, 2016. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at the Black Women's Agenda Annual Symposium in Washington, U.S., September 16, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton waves as she boards her campaign plane in Washington, U.S., September 16, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton reacts as she receives the CBC Trailblazer Award during the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation's Phoenix Awards Dinner at the Washington convention center in Washington, U.S., September 17, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton speaks at the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation's Phoenix Awards Dinner in Washington, U.S., September 17, 2016. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks to the media before boarding her campaign plane at the Westchester County airport in White Plains, New York, U.S. September 19, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton talks to reporters about the explosion in Chelsea neighborhood of Manhattan, New York, as she arrives at the Westchester County airport in White Plains, U.S., September 17, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton attends a bilateral meeting with Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (R) at a hotel in New York, U.S. September 19, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton meets with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at a hotel in New York, U.S. September 19, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton attends a bilateral meeting with Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko (R) at a hotel in New York, U.S. September 19, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
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Beneath the narrowing of national polls, strange signals have emerged at the state level. Across the country, Clinton is competitive in traditionally Republican strongholds. Meanwhile, Trump could steal electoral votes from Clinton in places Barack Obama won in both his election victories.

Trump barely leads in must-win Ohio, but appears to have a chance at winning Iowa and Nevada. Obama won all three in 2012. But Clinton is competitive in Georgia — a state Mitt Romney won by eight points — and is close to Trump in North Carolina. Losing either state would doom Trump's chance of an electoral college victory.

Since 1984, Georgia has gone red every presidential cycle — except for when Bill Clinton won the state in 1992. A Clinton pickup of the state would be a major shift in the electoral map.

Many state polls also exclude Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. National polling shows the Libertarian and Green party candidates may peel millions of votes away from the two-party candidates. But because pollsters do not consistently include the third party candidates, it is difficult to gauge what impact Johnson or Stein may be having in any particular state.

A recent Fox News poll showed Johnson and Stein underperforming their national averages in swing states. But because these polls are not consistent, the trends in support are less reliable. According to RealClearPolitics, national surveys peg Johnson and Stein at 8.8 and 2.8 percent support.

The takeaway: The race has tightened and, unlike in the past, Trump's support does not seem artificial. But polling still gives Clinton an edge. With a clear majority of voters likely to tune in, all eyes will be on the polls following Clinton and Trump's first debate.

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