Polling: Trump has 40 percent chance of becoming president

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Donald Trump's chances of winning the presidency on November 8 have increased significantly in the last week as Hillary Clinton has suffered a series of campaign setbacks.

One week after she was forced to take time away from the campaign trail to recover from a case of pneumonia after overheating at a 9/11 event, Clinton is less than one point ahead of Trump according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, 44.9 percent to 44.0 percent. In the four-way average that factors Jill Stein and Gary Johnson's candidacies into the mix, Clinton's lead is a mere 0.7 percent.

SEE ALSO: A bombshell report is raising questions about Trump's business ties to Russia and Iran

Meanwhile, the FiveThirtyEight "Polls plus" forecast, which factors in polls and other traditional indicators to determine a candidate's likelihood of winning, determines Clinton has a less than 60 percent chance of winning. Trump now has a 40 percent chance of winning. The shift is a 20 point swing from August 8, when Clinton had a near-80 percent chance of winning compared to Trump at 20.

The major shift in the campaign comes only 50 days before the election.

RELATED: See Clinton return to the trail after taking time off

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Hillary Clinton campaigning after pneumonia
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Hillary Clinton campaigning after pneumonia
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton gives a thumbs up as she boards her campaign plane in White Plains, New York, United States September 15, 2016, to resume her campaign schedule following a bout with pneumonia. REUTERS/Brian Snyder TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton boards her campaign plane in White Plains, New York, United States September 15, 2016, to resume her campaign schedule following a bout with pneumonia. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton pauses while speaking at a campaign rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, United States, September 15, 2016, after she resumed her campaign schedule following a bout with pneumonia. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton pauses while speaking at a campaign rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, United States, September 15, 2016, after she resumed her campaign schedule following a bout with pneumonia. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton waves after speaking at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute's 39th Annual Gala Dinner in Washington, DC, U.S. September 15, 2016. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute's 39th Annual Gala Dinner in Washington, DC, U.S. September 15, 2016. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at the Black Women's Agenda Annual Symposium in Washington, U.S., September 16, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton waves as she boards her campaign plane in Washington, U.S., September 16, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton reacts as she receives the CBC Trailblazer Award during the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation's Phoenix Awards Dinner at the Washington convention center in Washington, U.S., September 17, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton speaks at the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation's Phoenix Awards Dinner in Washington, U.S., September 17, 2016. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks to the media before boarding her campaign plane at the Westchester County airport in White Plains, New York, U.S. September 19, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton talks to reporters about the explosion in Chelsea neighborhood of Manhattan, New York, as she arrives at the Westchester County airport in White Plains, U.S., September 17, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton attends a bilateral meeting with Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (R) at a hotel in New York, U.S. September 19, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton meets with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at a hotel in New York, U.S. September 19, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton attends a bilateral meeting with Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko (R) at a hotel in New York, U.S. September 19, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
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Clinton sent surrogates out on the trail to campaign on her behalf for the first half of the week while she rested at her home in New York in hopes of recovering from a bout of pneumonia.

Video surfaced on Sunday that appeared to show her knees buckle as she was helped into a vehicle. The clip raised many questions among political pundits that concerns over her health could hurt her chances of becoming president. The news sparked concerns in the betting markets, and a poll that came out later in the week found half of all Americans think she's lying about her health.

RELATED: RCP general election poll average - Clinton vs. Trump

While his standing in the polls held firm, Trump's week was not without incident either.

Trump made headlines over the weekend for suggesting Clinton's bodyguards disarm and that he'd like to "see what happens," a comment which some said could encourage violence against her.

Leaked emails also revealed Colin Powell's blunt thoughts about the major party nominees running for office, including digs at both. Powell called Trump a "national disgrace" in one of the leaked messages and said "Everything [Hillary Clinton] touches she kind of screws up with hubris" in another.

The impact of the bombing in New York will likely be the next major development to impact the race. Both Trump and Clinton have made initial statements in response, but will likely have more to say if a motive for the attack comes to light.

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