2016 MTV VMAs: Who will win and who should win

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10 Wildest Moments from the MTV VMAs

The 2016 MTV Video Music Awards will be dishing out Moonmen to music's brightest at New York's Madison Square Garden this Sunday.

While voting is decided by fan armies 'round the world, the ceremony could be a repeat of the 2012 Grammys if Adele sweeps with her comeback hit "Hello." However, the Beyhive has a shot at helping Queen Beyonce take home the trophies with her Lemonade offerings like "Formation" and "Hold Up." The self-proclaimed "6 God" can't be forgotten, either, as Drake has been dancing all over the internet thanks to memes from his viral "Hotline Bling" visual.

Before the winners take the podium Sunday night, two Billboard critics -- Adelle Platon and Chris Payne -- offer their predictions in the major VMA categories below.

MTV VMAs' 15 Craziest Moments of All Time

1. VIDEO OF THE YEAR
Adele – "Hello"
Beyoncé – "Formation"
Drake – "Hotline Bling"
Justin Bieber – "Sorry"
Kanye West – "Famous"

Who Will Win: Drake, "Hotline Bling" — Bey came up short in this category last year for "7/11," and this year, "Formation" figures to give her a better shot; this one had the help of the Super Bowl halftime show to push it into the headlines. But the VMAs are decided by fan voting, and does any artist have a stronger online coalition than Drake? Ask the average person if an image from any of these videos has stuck with them, and you're most likely to get Drake dancing to "Hotline Bling," thanks to the inescapable memes it spawned.

Who Should Win: Beyoncé, "Formation" — The "Formation" video jolted us to attention when Bey dropped it a day before stealing the (halftime) show at Super Bowl 50. The image of Beyoncé dancing on a police car sinking underwater is a lot more powerful than a bunch of people dancing to "Sorry" over a white background or Drake begging you to meme him via sweater dance.

2. BEST FEMALE VIDEO
Adele – "Hello"
Beyoncé – "Hold Up"
Sia – "Cheap Thrills"
Ariana Grande – "Into You"
Rihanna ft. Drake – "Work" (short version)

Who Will Win: Adele, "Hello" -- Adele's cinematic visual for "Hello" featured a sepia filter, the British siren's impeccable eyeliner, a landline phone, a phone booth and R&B darling Mack Wilds as her leading man -- the trappings of a viral phenomenon. Clocking in 1.6 billion views on YouTube and inspiring a flurry of parodies from Miss Piggy to Ellen DeGeneres, it would almost be criminal for Adele not to bag the highest honor of the night.

Who Should Win: Beyonce, "Hold Up" -- Though Sia taps a dance troupe for the theatrical "Cheap Thrills" clip and Ariana Grande gets into a bad romance for "Into You," Beyonce -- and her bat -- wreak havoc in the video for "Hold Up." Emerging from the depths of her watery chamber, Bey flaunts a devious smile while strolling the streets in a flowy, yellow Robert Cavalli dress. Scorned Beyonce is perhaps the best Beyonce.

See some of the wildest VMAs style moments below:

17 PHOTOS
Most scandalous red carpet looks in VMAs history
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Most scandalous red carpet looks in VMAs history

How 2000s is this look? Christina Aguilera flaunted her flat abs in a racy scarf tied as a bra top, tiny denim mini and black leather boots.

(Photo by Theo Wargo/WireImage)

If you thought Coco Austin's exposed G-string in 2005 was scandalous enough, wait until you see the front of her look ... The man's face says it all! Be warned, it's definitely NSFW.

(Photo by Marc Andrew Deley/FilmMagic)

Even in body-positive 2016, we're totally blushing over Austin's busty look.

(Photo by Evan Agostini/Getty Images)

Before Miley Cyrus made pasties her wardrobe staple, Lil' Kim let it all hang out in an asymmetrical jumpsuit that left her left breast exposed, save for a shell-shaped pasty, of course!

 (Photo by Trevor Gillespie)

One year after her infamous Robin Thicke performance, Miley Cyrus shocked again in nothing but suspenders and a loincloth.

(Photo by Frank Trapper/Corbis via Getty Images)

Here's a classic! Rose McGowan totally set the standard in 1998 when she stepped onto the red carpet in a barely-there frock that was really a collection of strings.

(Photo by Jeff Kravitz/FilmMagic)

The front of her mesh frock left her entire body -- and her leopard-print thong -- exposed.

(Photo by Jeff Kravitz/FilmMagic)

Carmen Electra sizzled in a tunic-esque black gown with just a five pieces of hardware keeping the frock together.

(Photo by Ron Galella, Ltd./WireImage)

Britney Spears was on the verge of a wardrobe malfunction at the 1999 show in a partially-buttoned, totally sheer buttondown with carefully-placed feathered accents.

(Photo by Vinnie Zuffante/Getty Images)

We doubt Pam Anderson could breathe in this dangerously cinched corset top!

(Photo by Evan Agostini/Liaison)

Nicki Minaj left little to the imagination in 2015 in this busty gold gown with sheer panels.

(Photo by Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic)

Model Erin Wasson flaunted her svelte figure in a sheer body-hugging gown with exposed undies.

(Photo by Lars Niki/Corbis via Getty Images)

Amber Rose looked inspired by Rose McGowan in this sparkly, chain-adorned number in 2014.

(Photo by Jeff Kravitz/FilmMagic)

Britney Spears' tiny gold minidress looked like it was painted on to her fit figure.

(Photo by Gregg DeGuire/WireImage)

Pamela Anderson definitely ditched her underwear under these hip-baring pants and caged bra top in 2001.

(Photo by Vinnie Zuffante/Getty Images)

Fergie played to some schoolgirl fantasy in these tiny Burberry-print hot pants, white buttondown crop top and knee-high boots.

(Photo by Jason Merritt/FilmMagic)

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3. BEST MALE VIDEO
Drake – "Hotline Bling"
Bryson Tiller – "Don't"
Calvin Harris feat. Rihanna – "This Is What You Came For"
Kanye West – "Famous"
The Weeknd – "Can't Feel My Face"

Who Will Win: Drake, "Hotline Bling" — If "Hotline Bling" is going to win video of the year, we've got to figure it'll take this category too. Last year, Taylor Swift swept all the major categories she was nominated in, so with that precedent in place, we like Drake's chances here.

Who Should Win: Bryson Tiller, "Don't" — The Bryson Tiller video is a well-shot, carefully curated video that captures the mood of "Don't" through dim-lit shots of city life and romantic distance. This kinda stuff deserves awards!

4. BEST COLLABORATION
Beyoncé feat. Kendrick Lamar – "Freedom"
Fifth Harmony feat. Ty Dolla $ign – "Work From Home"
Ariana Grande feat. Lil Wayne – "Let Me Love You"
Calvin Harris feat. Rihanna – "This Is What You Came For"
Rihanna feat. Drake – "Work" (short version)

Who Will Win: Rihanna feat. Drake "Work" -- The inescapable dancehall pop gem instantly gets stuck in the minds of those who hear it. With a repetitively catchy hook, a nod to Jamaican singer's 1998 dancehall riddim "Sail Away" and Riri's swaggy patois, this song of the summer contender also featured two visuals -- one featuring frequent collaborators Drake and Rihanna (sporting a shimmery, see-through top) in a pink-ish room and the other, a steamy bashment at the Carribbean restaurant The Real Jerk in Toronto.

Who Should Win: Beyonce feat. Kendrick Lamar "Freedom" -- The two titans joined forces on an insane Just Blaze beat for the empowering finale off Lemonade. The visual for the deep cut also featured the mothers of Trayvon Martin, Eric Garner and Michael Brown. Their 2016 BET Awards performance made a huge splash as Beyonce, her dancers and Lamar stomped in a pool of water with fists raised. Despite the song's heavier meaning in comparison to its category mates, "Freedom" is an anthem of strength that deserves shine.

5. BEST HIP HOP VIDEO:
Drake – "Hotline Bling"
Desiigner – "Panda"
Bryson Tiller – "Don't"
Chance The Rapper – "Angels"
2 Chainz – "Watch Out"

Who Will Win: Drake, "Hotline Bling" — If we think Drake is going to win Video of the Year and Best Male Video...; can you tell where we're going with this?

Who Should Win: Chance the Rapper, "Angels" — We said how we feel about the Bryson Tiller video, and we also love a part-cartoon Chance the Rapper flying through Chi-town.

6. BEST POP VIDEO
Adele – "Hello"
Beyoncé – "Formation"
Justin Bieber – "Sorry"
Alessia Cara – "Wild Things"
Ariana Grande – "Into You"

Who Will Win: Justin Bieber's "Sorry" -- The video for the viral dance number has racked up 1.7 billion views on Twitter and the Biebs himself doesn't even make a cameo. The dancer-filled presentation has sparked many spin-offs from Beliebers and beyond, including NFL player Von Miller spoofed it for a Madden promo. The record-breaking hit was also the first to dethrone Adele's "Hello" on the Hot 100. Most importantly, the track will make any wallflower a member of the dance, dance revolution.

Who Should Win: Beyonce's "Formation" -- Beyonce's cry for solidarity had women shouting "'Cause I slay" from the top of their lungs (and also slipping hot sauce into their bags #swag). From the controversial shot of Bey singing on top of a sinking cop car to her parking lot joy ride, this girl power anthem goes harder than the other pop visual offerings in this category. There's no doubt her 'Hive will get in formation and vote till MTV gives her the crown.

7. BEST ROCK VIDEO
All Time Low – "Missing You"
Coldplay – "Adventure of a Lifetime"
Fall Out Boy ft. Demi Lovato – "Irresistible"
twenty one pilots – "Heathens"
Panic! At The Disco – "Victorious"

Who Will Win: Fall Out Boy feat. Demi Lovato "Irresistible" — Fall Out Boy won this category last year (for "Uma Thurman") and they've definitely put in work at award shows in recent years. Along with Demi Lovato's star power, we think FOB takes it a second year in a row.

Who Should Win: Panic! at the Disco, "Victorious" — Panic! at the Disco's black-eyed, liquor-filled, high-octane video for "Victorious" is #peak for everything that is Panic! at the Disco. Give it a moonman!

See our favorite:
11 Most Memorable MTV VMA Fashion Moments

8. BEST ELECTRONIC VIDEO
Calvin Harris & Disciples – "How Deep Is Your Love"
99 Souls feat. Destiny's Child & Brandy – "The Girl Is Mine"
Mike Posner – "I Took a Pill in Ibiza"
Afrojack – "SummerThing!"
The Chainsmokers feat. Daya – "Don't Let Me Down"

Who Will Win: The Chainsmokers feat. Daya, "Don't Let Me Down" -- The woodsy visual features a yellow whip with sick hydraulics and two fellows besting the laws of gravity as Daya and her forest dancers work their magic. The dance chart-topper could also use a lift with a Moonman in the best electronic video category.

Who Should Win: Calvln Harris & Disciples, "How Deep -- The trippy visual for the Calvin Harris cut features blonde bombshell Gigi Hadid playing a stunning patient on an exam table after a wild night of raving and a pool plunge. Afrojack's turnt up visual for "SummerThing!" featuring Mike Taylor comes a close second but Hadid star power is always a win.

9. BREAKTHROUGH LONG FORM VIDEO
Florence + The Machine – The Odyssey
Beyoncé – Lemonade
Justin Bieber – PURPOSE: The Movement
Chris Brown – Royalty
Troye Sivan – Blue Neighbourhood Trilogy

Who Will Win: Beyoncé, Lemonade - No doubt about it.

Who Should Win: Beyoncé, Lemonade - We can't say for sure, but it sure seems like this brand new category was created because Beyoncé released one particular breakthrough long form video this year, which doesn't conveniently fit into any of the other categories, yet still deserves a VMA.

10. BEST NEW ARTIST
Bryson Tiller
Desiigner
Zara Larsson
Lukas Graham
DNCE

Who Will Win: DNCE -- Despite DNCE frontman Joe Jonas' boy band past, this pop rock group served up a delicious hit with "Cake by the Ocean," which also carried a beachy visual. Whether performing on Ellen or the Billboard Music Awards, there ain't no party like a DNCE party.

Who Should Win: Desiigner -- The "Panda" hitmaker not only scored some real estate on Kanye West's The Life of Pablo (see: "Pt. 2") and a slot on G.O.O.D. Music but the Brooklyn rapper has also followed it up with his viral tune "Tiimmy Turner."

See the best looks from the 2001 VMAs, 15 years ago:
61 PHOTOS
2001 VMAs red carpet
See Gallery
2001 VMAs red carpet
Pamela Anderson during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
NEW YORK, UNITED STATES: Actress Pamela Anderson (L) arrives with musician Kid Rock at the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards 06 September, 2001, in New York. AFP PHOTO Stan HONDA (Photo credit should read STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images)
Britney Spears (Photo by KMazur/WireImage)
NEW YORK CITY - SEPTEMBER 6: Singer Jessica Simpson and sister Ashlee Simpson attend the 18th Annual MTV Video Music Awards on September 6, 2001 at the Metropolitan Opera House, Lincoln Center in New York City. (Photo by Ron Galella/WireImage)
NEW YORK CITY - SEPTEMBER 6: Rapper Eve attends the 18th Annual MTV Video Music Awards on September 6, 2001 at the Metropolitan Opera House, Lincoln Center in New York City. (Photo by Ron Galella/WireImage)
Andy Dick during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Ron Galella/WireImage)
Andy Dick during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Ron Galella/WireImage)
Macy Gray during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Ron Galella/WireImage)
Nelly Furtado during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Ron Galella/WireImage)
NEW YORK CITY - SEPTEMBER 6: Pop group NSYNC: Joey Fatone, Chris Kirkpatrick, Justin Timberlake, Lance Bass and JC Chasez attend the 18th Annual MTV Video Music Awards on September 6, 2001 at the Metropolitan Opera House, Lincoln Center in New York City. (Photo by Ron Galella/WireImage)
Shakira during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by RJ Capak/WireImage)
Willa Ford during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by RJ Capak/WireImage)
Sheryl Crow during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
Big Boi and André 3000 of OutKast during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
Alicia Keys during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
Shakira during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
Mary J. Blige during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
Molly Sims during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
Bond during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
Mudvayne during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
Jennifer Lopez during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
Trina during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
Nikka Costa during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
Destiny's Child during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
Dream during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by D. Kambouris/WireImage)
Lil' Mo during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by D. Kambouris/WireImage)
Fatboy Slim and guest during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by D. Kambouris/WireImage)
India.Arie during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by D. Kambouris/WireImage)
Heidi Klum (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
UNITED STATES - SEPTEMBER 06: Will Smith & Son arriving for the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards @ Lincoln Center in NYC 9/6/01 (Photo by Vinnie Zuffante/Getty Images)
UNITED STATES - SEPTEMBER 06: Usher arriving for the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards @ Lincoln Center in NYC 9/6/01 (Photo by Vinnie Zuffante/Getty Images)
UNITED STATES - SEPTEMBER 06: No Doubt arriving for the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards @ Lincoln Center in NYC 9/6/01 (Photo by Vinnie Zuffante/Getty Images)
UNITED STATES - SEPTEMBER 06: Jewel arriving for the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards @ Lincoln Center in NYC 9/6/01 (Photo by Vinnie Zuffante/Getty Images)
UNITED STATES - SEPTEMBER 06: Busta Rhymes arriving at the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards 9/6/01 Lincon Center New York, NY (Photo by Vinnie Zuffante/Getty Images)
Vitamin C during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Theo Wargo/WireImage)
Janet Jackson during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by KMazur/WireImage)
Jamie-Lynn Sigler during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by KMazur/WireImage)
Jennifer Lopez and Cris Judd during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by KMazur/WireImage)
Pink, Christina Aguilera, Lil' Kim, & Mya during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Theo Wargo/WireImage)
City High during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Theo Wargo/WireImage)
Missy Elliott during 2001 MTV Video Music Awards - Arrivals at The Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Theo Wargo/WireImage)
Britney Spears and Mick Jagger (Photo by KMazur/WireImage)
Heidi Klum (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
Janet Jackson (Photo by KMazur/WireImage)
Mandy Moore (Photo by KMazur/WireImage)
Pink, Mya, Christina Aguilera, & Lil' Kim (Photo by Jim Spellman/WireImage)
Backstreet Boys (Photo by Kevin Mazur/WireImage)
Jon Bon Jovi and Richie Sambora (Photo by RJ Capak/WireImage)
NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 6: American pop star Britney Spears arrives at the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards at the Metropolitan Opera House on September 6, 2001 in New York. (Photo by Dave Hogan/Getty Images)
Mark Wahlberg arriving at the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards held at the Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City on September 6, 2001. Photo by Dave Hogan/Getty Images
Carmen Kaas arriving at the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards held at the Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City on September 6, 2001. Photo by Dave Hogan/Getty Images
Linkin Park arriving at the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards, held at the Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, 9/6/01. Photo by Evan Agostini/ImageDirect.
Will Ferrell arriving at the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards, held at the Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, 9/6/01. Photo by Evan Agostini/ImageDirect.
U2 arriving at the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards, held at the Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, 9/6/01. Photo by Evan Agostini/ImageDirect.
Damon Dash arriving at the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards, held at the Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, 9/6/01. Photo by Evan Agostini/ImageDirect.
Jay-Z arriving at the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards, held at the Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, 9/6/01. Photo by Evan Agostini/ImageDirect.
Sean Puffy Combs arriving at the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards, held at the Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, 9/6/01. Photo by Evan Agostini/ImageDirect.
O-Town arriving at the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards, held at the Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, 9/6/01. Photo by Evan Agostini/ImageDirect.
Angie Harmon arriving at the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards, held at the Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, 9/6/01. Photo by Evan Agostini/ImageDirect.
Ben Stiller arriving at the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards, held at the Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York City, 9/6/01. Photo by Evan Agostini/ImageDirect.
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