Nate Silver: There's still a 15% chance that Donald Trump could be our next president

Before you go, we thought you'd like these...
Before you go close icon

Margin of Error for Presidential Polling

A month ago, immediately after the Republican convention, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had about an even chance of getting elected president, according to political analyst Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.

Since then, however, Trump has collapsed in the poll averages and betting markets, and Clinton is now the overwhelming favorite.

The good news for Trump fans is that, in the past week, Trump has bounced off of his lows. The real-estate developer and former reality-television star now has a 15% chance of getting elected, says Silver.

Click through images from when Donald Trump announced his campaign for presidency:

17 PHOTOS
Donald Trump announces campaign for presidency
See Gallery
Donald Trump announces campaign for presidency
U.S. Republican presidential candidate, real estate mogul and TV personality Donald Trump makes a point as he formally announces his campaign for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination during an event at Trump Tower in New York June 16, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
U.S. Republican presidential candidate, real estate mogul and TV personality Donald Trump acknowledges supporters next to his wife, Melania, before formally announcing his campaign for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination during an event at Trump Tower in New York June 16, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
U.S. Republican presidential candidate, real estate mogul and TV personality Donald Trump arrives by escalator inside at Trump Tower to announce his campaign for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination in New York June 16, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 16: Business mogul Donald Trump gives a speech as he announces his candidacy for the U.S. presidency at Trump Tower on June 16, 2015 in New York City. Trump is the 12th Republican who has announced running for the White House. (Photo by Christopher Gregory/Getty Images)
U.S. Republican presidential candidate, real estate mogul and TV personality Donald Trump formally announces his campaign for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination during an event at Trump Tower in New York June 16, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Ivanka Trump, daughter of real estate mogul and TV personality Donald Trump, introduces her father prior to his formally announcing his campaign for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination during an event at Trump Tower in New York June 16, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Trump supporters wait for U.S. Republican presidential candidate, real estate mogul and TV personality Donald Trump to formally announce his campaign for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination during an event at Trump Tower in New York June 16, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Ivanka Trump, daughter of developer Donald Trump, arrives to hear her father announce that he will run for president of the United States, in the lobby of Trump Tower, New York, Tuesday, June 16, 2015. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
Developer Donald Trump with daughters Ivanka Trump, left, and Tiffany Trump, after his announcement that he will seek the Republican nominaiton for president, Tuesday, June 16, 2015, in the lobby of Trump Tower in New York. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
U.S. Republican presidential candidate, real estate mogul and TV personality Donald Trump formally announces his campaign for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination during an event at Trump Tower in New York June 16, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Trump supporters wait for U.S. Republican presidential candidate, real estate mogul and TV personality Donald Trump to formally announce his campaign for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination during an event at Trump Tower in New York June 16, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
U.S. Republican presidential candidate, real estate mogul and TV personality Donald Trump gestures as he formally announces his campaign for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination during an event at Trump Tower in New York June 16, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
U.S. Republican presidential candidate, real estate mogul and TV personality Donald Trump gives a thumbs up while he poses with his family after formally announcing his campaign for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination during an event at Trump Tower in New York June 16, 2015. The Trump family from L; Eric Trump and his wife Lara, Donald Trump, son Barron, Melania Trump, Vanessa Haydon and her husband Donald Trump Jr., children Kia Trump and Donald Trump III, Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner and Tiffany Trump. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
U.S. Republican presidential candidate, real estate mogul and TV personality Donald Trump formally announces his campaign for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination during an event at Trump Tower in New York June 16, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Supporters chant as they wait for developer Donald Trump to announce that he will seek the Republican nominaiton for president, Tuesday, June 16, 2015, in the lobby of Trump Tower in New York. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
Developer Donald Trump, fourth left, poses with his family after his announcement that he will run for president of the United States, in the lobby of Trump Tower, New York, Tuesday, June 16, 2015. From lef are: son Eric Trump, with his wife Lara Yunaska; Donald Trump's son Barron Trump, wife Melania Trump; Vanessa Haydon and her husband Donald Trump Jr.; daughter Ivanka Trump with her husband Jared Kushner; daughter Tiffany Trump. In the front row are Kai Trump and Donald Trump III, children of Donald Trump Jr. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
of
SEE ALL
BACK TO SLIDE
SHOW CAPTION +
HIDE CAPTION

Here's where things stand:

The polls

In the latest national poll average from RealClearPolitics, Clinton has a 6.5-point lead:

The markets

Clinton has a much more dominant lead on betting and prediction markets. She never completely lost her advantage here, but the gap did narrow. Now, reflecting the current consensus, it's wide.

PredictWise, for example, puts the Democrat's odds of winning at 79%, close to the highest level ever:

Predictwise election oddsReal Clear Politics

The Iowa Electronic Markets and Betfair show similar patterns.

The analysts

The data-based political analysts generally agree that Clinton is way ahead.

Using a state-by-state poll average, for example, FiveThirtyEight's Silver estimates that Hillary Clinton's odds of winning are even higher than they are on the betting markets: 85%. These odds have fallen a bit in recent days, however. Last week, FiveThirtyEight put Clinton's odds at over 90%:

Nate Silver odds of presidencyReal Clear Politics

How to read pollsReal Clear Politics

NOW WATCH: Electoral map shows Clinton would win the presidency if the election were held today

Read Full Story

Sign up for Breaking News by AOL to get the latest breaking news alerts and updates delivered straight to your inbox.

Subscribe to our other newsletters

Emails may offer personalized content or ads. Learn more. You may unsubscribe any time.

From Our Partners