Will the Amish turn out for Trump? Don't bet the farm

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Will Amish People Vote for Trump?

Supporters of Donald Trump's campaign have recently employed an unorthodox tactic to secure additional votes in Pennsylvania and Ohio – forming a super PAC to mobilize Amish voters.

The aptly named Amish PAC has already purchased billboard and newspaper advertisements in an effort to appeal to Amish voters.

But will the Amish vote for Trump in 2016? My research with Donald Kraybill provides some guidance on this question.

Do the Amish Vote?

There are a number of factors working against the Amish supporting Trump, or any presidential candidate for that matter. First, the Amish typically refrain from political participation – including voting – because of their religious beliefs. The Amish maintain a level of separation from the outside world to ensure spiritual purity.

Further complicating outreach to potential Amish voters is the role of the president as commander-in-chief. The Amish reject violence and war. The fact that the president controls the armed forces reduces the chances that they would participate in a presidential election.

See what life is like in Amish country:

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The Amish community
GORDONVILLE, PA - MARCH 12: An Amish auctioneer leads bidders during the Annual Mud Sale to support the Fire Department March 12, 2011 in Gordonville, Pennsylvania. The auctions are held in the spring by the Amish community to raise money for the community. (Photo by Richard Ellis/Getty Images)
In this July 13, 2011 photo, Amish women shop at an Amish-owned country store in Centerville, N.Y. Centerville, a town south of Buffalo, has an established Amish community. Longstanding Amish population centers in Pennsylvania and Ohio have lost families while Amish numbers in New York have boomed in the past two years, according to a new study by Elizabethtown College researchers. (AP Photo/David Duprey)
In this July 13, 2011 photo, an Amish boy rides home for lunch after a morning of hauling hay in Centerville, N.Y. Centerville, a town south of Buffalo, has an established Amish community. Longstanding Amish population centers in Pennsylvania and Ohio have lost families while Amish numbers in New York have boomed in the past two years, according to a new study by Elizabethtown College researchers. (AP Photo/David Duprey)
Mennonite farmer Menno Shirk, left, displays potted flowers for auction by Mennonite auctioneer Larry Martin, right, at the Central Missouri Produce Auction Friday, April 3, 2009, near Fortuna, Mo. Leading up to the Mother's Day holiday in May, the majority of auctions are for flowers grown by the Mennonite community. (AP Photo/Patrick T. Fallon)
[UNVERIFIED CONTENT] Amish farmers using a horse-drawn plow on hay field near Lancaster County , PA. Amish are descendants of Swiss-German Mennonites who fled religious persecution in Europe and are famous for their strict beliefs, traditional dress and their rejection of modern day conveniences, such as electricity and cars. The oldest community of Amish in the United States live in this area of Lancaster County, PA.
GORDONVILLE, PA - MARCH 12: Amish bidders watch the auction during the Annual Mud Sale to support the Fire Department March 12, 2011 in Gordonville, Pennsylvania. The auctions are held in the spring by the Amish community to raise money for the community. (Photo by Richard Ellis/Getty Images)
Amish community in Mexico, 2009. (Photo by: PYMCA/UIG via Getty Images)
NICKEL MINES, PA - JANUARY 30: Members of the Amish community pass the site of the old schoolhouse in which five Amish girls were murdered January 30, 2007 in Nickel Mines, Pennsylvania. The Amish are in the process of rebuilding a schoolhouse a few hundred yards from the site where Charles Carl Roberts IV shot 10 girls and later committed suicide on October 2, 2006. (Photo by William Thomas Cain/Getty Images)
UNITED STATES - OCTOBER 27: Amish women react with emotion as they look over photographs of Waveland, Miss., as it was before Hurricane Katrina hit during a sharing night for the Waveland and Amish communities at an Amish camp near the beach in Waveland, Miss. The Amish people arrived from Lancaster County, Penn., on Sept. 3, 2005, five days after the storm, to volunteer to help with the cleanup and rebuilding effort. But for a two-month hiatus in the summer to tend to crops and fields back home, the Amish are still here, making the 20-hour trip in someone else's vehicle, since one of the Amish customs is to not drive. (Photo by Craig Warga/NY Daily News Archive via Getty Images)
INTERCOURSE, UNITED STATES: A sign entering Intercourse, PA, 08 October, 2004, in Lancaster County, PA. The Amish are descendants of Swiss-German Mennonites who fled persecution in Europe in the 16th century and are famous for their strict beliefs, traditional dress and their rejection of modern day conveniences, such as electricity and cars. The oldest community of Amish in the United States live in this area of Lancaster County, PA. AFP PHOTO/Stan HONDA (Photo credit should read STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images)
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That's not to say that Amish never vote. The degree to which voting is accepted varies by church district and community. There is anecdotal evidence of Amish voting in local elections, particularly when ordinances or zoning issues directly influence their way of life. But, by and large, Amish going to the polls is the exception, not the rule.

The Amish Vote in 2004

Perhaps the most prominent exception was the 2004 presidential election. At the time, Pennsylvania was considered a battleground state, and in the event of another cliffhanger election like in 2000, Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes could have decided the election's outcome. Republican operatives sought to register new voters who would support George W. Bush's socially conservative policies. Turning out a few thousand new voters from an untapped demographic group could swing the Keystone State in the event of another close election.

On the surface, registering Amish voters made sense. Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, where Republicans focused their efforts, is home to one of the world's largest Amish settlements, and it was also the state's Republican stronghold. Amish are socially conservative and rejected the practices of abortion, divorce and same-sex marriage. This group should have turned out in droves for Bush, but it didn't.

In a study of Amish voting, my colleague Donald Kraybill and I found that in the months leading up to the 2004 presidential election, voter registration among Amish people in Lancaster County increased by a whopping 169 percent. Of the 10,350 Amish adults in Lancaster County, 21 percent registered to vote by Election Day. We attributed this increase to three factors.

First, a former Lancaster Republican Committee chairman, who was born Amish but left the church before he was baptized, took the lead in personally reaching out to Amish voters. He maintained strong connections to the Amish community – his extended family were members of the Amish faith – and he spoke the Pennsylvania Dutch dialect.

Second, social issues – particularly same-sex marriage – were a focal point of the 2004 election. That year, voters in 11 states ratified state constitutional amendments outlawing same-sex unions. The perceived threat of society embracing a practice that was antithetical to biblical teachings motivated many Amish to register to vote.

Finally, Amish connected on a personal level with George W. Bush – a social conservative with a folksy demeanor. As one Amish man put it after meeting with President Bush following a campaign stop in Pennsylvania, "he seemed relaxed and just like an old neighbor." Another Amish man agreed, "he seemed just like an old time farmer." That, along with Bush's sincerely held Christian beliefs, forged a bond with Amish people in Pennsylvania.

But, there was a backlash. Amish bishops were alarmed by this new groundswell of political engagement within their communities just months before the election. In several Amish publications, church leaders urged community members to refrain from voting and instead pray for the country's leaders. Of the 2,134 registered Amish voters in Lancaster County, 63 percent turned out to vote on Election Day. That's a respectable level of turnout for any voter demographic, but even assuming that all 1,342 Amish voters supported Bush, that wasn't nearly enough to swing Pennsylvania. John Kerry won the state by more than 144,000 votes.

Will Trump Harvest the Amish Vote?

What can we expect this year?

Conditions in 2016 are quite different than 2004. True, there is a former member of the Amish faith working to mobilize Amish voters for Trump. However, it is not clear he has the same political or community connections necessary to mobilize a large number of voters, particularly in multiple states.

Also, same-sex marriage isn't nearly as controversial as it was in 2004. Issues like the economy and terrorism are the highest priority in 2016, and the presidential campaigns are focusing on those issues.

Most importantly, The Donald isn't Dubya.

Trump has filed for divorce multiple times, and several of his businesses went bankrupt. Any of these actions, individually, are grounds for excommunication in the Amish faith. And it's hard to image Amish feeling as strong of a connection to Trump as they did to Bush. After all, Trump isn't openly religious and his lifestyle is anything but "plain."

A better bet may be for Trump to appeal to Reagan Democrats affected by the collapse of the manufacturing industry. After all, there are many disaffected blue-collar voters around Scranton, Pittsburgh and Cleveland who could turn Pennsylvania and Ohio red in November. Those voters are in play, and there are far more of them than Amish voters.

This article was written by Kyle C. Kopko, Associate Professor of Political Science, Elizabethtown College, for The Conversation. It has been republished with permission.

Copyright 2016 U.S. News & World Report

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