The recent stock market records are great news for Hillary Clinton

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Clinton's New Ad Strategy Against Trump



In the past few weeks, we've seen huge moves on both the political and financial fronts.

In politics, Hillary Clinton's lead in national polling has jumped to its highest level in months. On the finance side, the three major stock indexes have all reached fresh all-time highs.

While these two jumps may appear to be unrelated on the surface, there may be some correlation between the two.

As we've noted before, the S&P 500 has been a pretty reliable indicator of who is going to win the White House. In 19 of the past 22 elections, if the stock market was up in the three months before the election, the incumbent party won. If it was down, a new party took over the Presidency.

​​​​​​RELATED: See photos of Hillary Clinton at the 2016 DNC

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Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton bats balloons after accepting the nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. July 28, 2016. REUTERS/Mark Kauzlarich
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton enjoys the balloon drop after accepting the nomination on the fourth and final night at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. July 28, 2016. REUTERS/Gary Cameron
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and her husband former president Bill Clinton react to the balloon drop after she accepted the nomination on the fourth and final night at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. July 28, 2016. REUTERS/Jim Young
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton enjoys the balloon drop with her vice presidential running mate Senator Tim Kaine after accepting the nomination on the fourth and final night at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. July 28, 2016. REUTERS/Gary Cameron
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and her husband former president Bill Clinton react to the balloon drop after she accepted the nomination on the fourth and final night at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. July 28, 2016. REUTERS/Jim Young TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton celebrates with balloons after she accepted the nomination on the last night of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. July 28, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Segar
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton celebrates among balloons after she accepted the nomination on the fourth and final night at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. July 28, 2016. REUTERS/Jim Young
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and her vice presidential running mate Senator Tim Kaine celebrate among balloons after she accepted the nomination on the fourth and final night at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. July 28, 2016. REUTERS/Jim Young
Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton hugs her husband former president Bill Clinton after accepting the nomination on the fourth and final night at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. July 28, 2016. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton bats balloons after accepting the nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. July 28, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Segar TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton (L) waves with Anne Holton, wife of vice presidential running mate Senator Tim Kaine (Back, R) and her husband former president Bill Clinton after accepting the nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. July 28, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Segar
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton walks with her vice presidential running mate Senator Tim Kaine during the balloon drop after accepting the nomination on the fourth and final night at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. July 28, 2016. REUTERS/Gary Cameron
Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton (L) and Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Tim Kaine (R) celebrate with loved ones and supporters after her acceptance speech at the 2016 Democratic National Convention July 28, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. / AFP / Brendan Smialowski (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)
Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and her husband former US President Bill Clinton watch falling balloons during the 2016 Democratic National Convention July 28, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. / AFP / Brendan Smialowski (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton stands with her husband, former president Bill Clinton, after accepting the nomination on the final night of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. July 28, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Segar
Balloons come down on Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and running mate Tim Kaine at the end of the fourth and final night of the Democratic National Convention at Wells Fargo Center on July 28, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. / AFP / SAUL LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton celebrates among balloons after she accepted the nomination on the fourth and final night at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. July 28, 2016. REUTERS/Jim Young TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
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According to a note from Bespoke Investment Group, the correlation is holding up so far. Recently, the Betfair odds of a Clinton presidency have reached new highs at a roughly 75% chance. The past two times this has happened, according to Bespoke, the higher odds haven't lasted long.

"That being said, the odds for Clinton to win in November have really rallied in the last several days and are back near their highs of the year at slightly more than 75%," said a note from Bespoke.

"In each of the prior times where Clinton's odds (late April and late June) have approached current levels, they have quickly pulled back."

This time around, however, the recent all-time highs for stocks may provide the chance for Clinton to break out. Here's Bespoke again:

"It is often noted that a strong stock market and a good economy are good for the incumbent party, so with the S&P 500 at new highs and jobs data coming in strong for the second straight month, will this be the leg where Clinton finally breaks out or are her odds due for another pullback? We'll soon find out!"

The thinking is that if the economy and stock market are doing well, voters will likely want a continuation of the current policy. Therefore, strong economic and market data will favor Clinton, while any slippage will benefit her opponent Republican nominee Donald Trump (or, technically, a third party candidate).

Granted, we're just now entering the three-month predictive window for the S&P 500, but so far it appears to be favoring Clinton as much as the polling average.

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RELATED: Important people who support Hillary Clinton

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Important people who support Hillary Clinton (Politicians, famous figures, other celebs)
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Important people who support Hillary Clinton (Politicians, famous figures, other celebs)

Warren Buffett, chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., smiles during an event with Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State and 2016 Democratic presidential candidate, in Omaha, Nebraska, U.S., on Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2015. Buffet said at the rally that he was supporting Clinton's bid for president because they share a commitment to help the less affluent. (Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Governor Jerry Brown, seen here with then-candidate Bill Clinton in 1992, notoriously did not like the Clintons for years, but announced a week before the California primary that he would back Hillary Clinton. (Photo by Cynthia Johnson/Getty)
Actor Leonardo DiCaprio, seen here at the 2016 Vanity Fair Oscar Party, hasn't formally endorsed Hillary Clinton but he has donated $2700 to her campaign and backed her in 2008. (Photo by Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic)
Walter Mondale was the first former Democratic vice president to endorse Clinton (REUTERS/Craig Lassig)
Rep. John Lewis, D-Ga., has been an early Clinton backer, seen here at a 'Super Tuesday' watch party her campaign in Atlanta, Ga., March 1, 2016. He is famous for his work fighting for civil rights alongside Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. (Photo By Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)
LEBANON, NH - JANUARY 09: Former U.S. Women's National Soccer Team captain Abby Wambach smiles while she is introduced to a crowd at a Hillary Clinton campaign office on January 9, 2016 in Lebanon, New Hampshire. Wambach highlighted Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's commitment to standing up for women and girls. (Photo by Scott Eisen/Getty Images)
Singer Demi Lovato, seen here onstage at WE Day California 2016, is a Clinton supporter. (Photo by Mike Windle/Getty Images for WE Day )
Actress and screenwriter Lena Dunham campaigns for U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton at Eight Seven Central screen printers in Des Moines, Iowa, January 9, 2016. REUTERS/Brian C. Frank
Singer Katy Perry, center, holds a sign in support of Hillary Clinton, former U.S. secretary of state and 2016 Democratic presidential candidate, as Clinton speaks at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Des Moines, Iowa, U.S., on Saturday, Oct. 24, 2015. With Vice President Joe Biden officially out of the presidential race, the nation's first nominating contest between front-runner Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders is gaining steam, according to a new Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, seen here working with Clinton when they were Senate colleagues, was an early supporter of the former secretary of state. (REUTERS/William Philpott WP/SV)
Actress Kerry Washington, seen here at a 30th anniversary presentation at the 2015 Film Independent Spirit Awards, is a Clinton supporter. (Adrees Latif / Reuters)
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