Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in massive new poll, losing Ohio but winning White House
Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump if the election were held today, heading to a relatively easy victory even if Trump were to win the key battleground state of Ohio.
A massive new poll by Morning Consult finds Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, would collect 320 Electoral College votes to Trump's 212, far more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.
The poll, taken between April and early July, surveyed nearly 60,000 registered voters in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, a large enough sample to make a complete estimate of Electoral College results as the presidential race stands now.
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When eight toss-up states are removed, Clinton leads 225 electoral votes to Trump's 190.
Morning Consult's overall result is consistent with the fluctuating but persistent lead Clinton has maintained over Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee, in national polling since it became clear they would face each other in the general election. The survey also contains some surprises that may challenge the conventional wisdom regarding the states that are up for grabs this November.
In five states – Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire – Morning Consult found Clinton and Trump separated by less than a single percentage point.
Trump narrowly edges Clinton in Ohio, 41.7 percent to 40.9 percent, well within the poll's 1.6-point margin of error for the state. In April, a similar survey showed the Buckeye State leaning toward Clinton by 2 points.
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She also has lost a narrow advantage in Iowa, where they are now in a dead heat at 40.1 percent apiece. Clinton, meanwhile, has fractional advantages – within the state margins of error – in Pennsylvania, Florida, and New Hampshire.
All told, less than 5 points separate the two candidates in 13 states – including many of the Midwestern battleground states where white working class voters have increasingly abandoned the Democratic Party and where Trump hopes to lure them with his populist, protectionist message railing against free trade deals and immigration.
In Maine, a state Obama won twice by double-digits, Trump leads Clinton by 2 points, 40.8 percent to 38.8 percent. And Trump has moved Indiana, which Obama won in 2008, more solidly into his column, holding an 8-point lead over Clinton in the Hoosier State.
The survey also identified a tight race in several states that have been slowly trending from red to blue. This was especially true where minority groups in the so-called "rising American electorate" are growing, but that experts did not expect to see move to the Democrat's column just yet.
Trump's proposal to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and to deport 11 million immigrants in the country illegally, along with his coded winks at white supremacist groups, seem to have accelerated that shift: An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday that otherwise showed Clinton and Trump competing hard found Trump getting zero percent of the black vote in Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Clinton hopes to improve upon Obama's performance in Georgia, where African-Americans make up 29 percent of active voters according to data compiled by the Georgia secretary of state.
In 2008, then-Sen. Obama lost Georgia by more than 5 points, and lost the state by nearly 8 points in his 2012 re-election campaign. In April, Trump led Clinton by 6 points in Georgia; the new poll finds Clinton has a 1-point lead over Trump in the Peach State, 42.8 percent to 41.8 percent, a toss-up that leans toward Clinton.
Trump has a 3-point edge in North Carolina, which Obama won in 2008 but lost in 2012 and is on Clinton's radar now. In April, he led the state by 8 points, but Clinton has led the Tar Heel State outright in other polls.
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While Clinton's standing has faded somewhat since April, Morning Consult's poll shows Clinton with some breathing room.
In addition to losing Ohio, where the poll has her behind Trump, she could also drop Iowa, Florida and Pennsylvania, and even without those four states, she would still have 271 electoral votes – just enough to win.
Copyright 2016 U.S. News & World Report
