Severe weather outbreak, including widespread damaging thunderstorm winds, likely in the Midwest wednesday

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Dangerous Evening Ahead for Midwest

By Weather.com

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms appears likely Wednesday and Wednesday night in parts of the Midwest, with the potential for widespread damaging wind gusts over several states from the southern Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.

In addition to damaging winds, flooding is possible. Rainfall rates of 2 inches per hour are possible in thunderstorms on Wednesday morning and again during the afternoon and evening. Two distinct rounds of thunderstorms are possible.

The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued flash flood watches for portions of northern Illinois, eastern and northern Iowa, southern Minnesota and extreme northwest Indiana for Wednesday.

Low pressure pushing east along a warm front separating oppressively hot air from cooler air while being accompanied by a mid-level atmospheric disturbance is the setup for this potentially volatile severe threat.

Derechos, long-lived and widespread thunderstorm wind damage events, sometimes develop in this type of atmospheric setup, though it remains to be seen whether one of those will develop Wednesday or not.

(MORE: What is a Derecho?)

The setup for a potential severe weather outbreak Wednesday and Wednesday night in the Midwest.

On Tuesday, severe thunderstorms flared up in a broad zone from the mid-Atlantic states to the northern High Plains.

For a complete recap of Tuesday and Tuesday night's severe weather impacts, click here to read the article.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the severe threats through Thursday.

Severe Weather Forecast

Wednesday-Wednesday Night

  • Morning: One or more clusters of t-storms from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley will be capable of strong wind gusts, large hail and locally flooding rainfall.
  • Late afternoon: Discrete supercell thunderstorms (particularly in western part of severe risk area) pose a threat of large hail and a few tornadoes.
  • Night: Activity should congeal into a large squall line of t-storms in parts of Indiana, Ohio and southern Michigan by evening, pushing east-southeast into the central Appalachians late with a threat of widespread damaging straight-line winds, possibly leading to numerous power outages, downed trees, and perhaps some structural damage.
  • Cities: Chicago | Indianapolis | Cincinnati | Louisville

Wednesday's Thunderstorm Forecast
Areas shaded red have the greatest chance of seeing severe weather.

Thursday

  • Morning: We can't rule out the previous t-storm cluster/squall line surviving into the Mid-Atlantic states or Applachians Thursday morning, with straight-line high wind gusts the primary threat.
  • Afternoon/evening: Otherwise, widely-scattered severe t-storms may fire up in the afternoon and early evening along the frontal boundary from the mid-Atlatnic states and central Appalachians to the central High Plains of the Rockies.
  • Cities: Cincinnati | Denver | Washington D.C.

Thursday's Thunderstorm Forecast
Areas shaded red have the greatest chance of seeing severe weather.

Storm Reports Recap

Monday

Strong wind gusts took down trees and power lines in parts of Indiana, Illinois and Missouri on Monday afternoon. The threat shifted eastward by Monday evening, taking down additional trees and power lines in portions of Upstate New York. Additionally, some small hail was reported in places like Rochester, New York, late Monday evening.

Father's Day Weekend

Hail as large as tennis balls, teacups and even grapefruits struck Minnesota Sunday evening as severe thunderstorms rolled through the state.

One tornado was reported near Staples, Minnesota, Sunday evening. No injures were reported from that. However, strong wind gusts knocked a large tree onto a home in Deerwood, Minnesota, trapping three in the home and injuring one.

RELATED: See photos of severe flooding in America this year

19 PHOTOS
March storm flooding
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March storm flooding
Zavion Watson, right, pulls a boat full of relatives to dry land Friday, March 11, 2016, as they evacuate their homes on West Fontana Road in Independence, La., after heavy rains caused low areas to flood. (AP Photo/Scott Threlkeld)
Independence firefighter Chase Richard, left, lifts Lyliauna Sutherland, 9, from a boat Friday, March 11, 2016, after being evacuated with her family from their home on Highway 40 in Independence, La., after heavy rains caused low areas to flood. (AP Photo/Scott Threlkeld)
Independence Assistant Fire Chief Eric Anthony moves a high water sign out of swift-flowing floodwaters Friday, March 11, 2016, on Highway 40 in Independence, La. , after heavy rains caused low areas to flood. (AP Photo/Scott Threlkeld)
Independence volunteer firefighter Landon Woods lifts Nolan Sutherland, 6, from a boat Friday, March 11, 2016, after being evacuated with his family from their home on Highway 40 in Independence, La., after heavy rains caused low areas to flood. (AP Photo/Scott Threlkeld)
Sisters Briar Childress, second from left, and Jasmine Sutherland are helped from a boat by Independence firefighters Friday, March 11, 2016, after being evacuated from their home on Highway 40 in Independence, La., after heavy rains caused low areas to flood. (AP Photo/Scott Threlkeld)
A resident backs her car out of a flooded driveway after the water reached the bottom of her door jam, Friday, March 11, 2016, in Drew, Miss. A number of counties reported various levels of flooding from recent rains which began Wednesday and could last through Saturday. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
Caution tape closes off this neighborhood in Drew, Miss., Friday, March 11, 2016, as floodwaters have affected areas in the Delta. The flooding has affected the Delta to varying degrees. Additional rain is expected to continue through Saturday. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
Traffic rushes past this flooded neighborhood in Drew, Miss., Friday, March 11, 2016, as floodwaters have affected areas in the Delta. The flooding serves as evidence of the large amount of rain the Delta has received since Wednesday, and additional rain is expected to continue through Saturday. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
A sedan sits underwater along Shaw Street in Drew, Miss., Friday, March 11, 2016, as floodwaters have affected areas in the Delta. Rain kept falling in Mississippi Friday as rescuers plucked people from flash flooding and residents along Delta rivers sandbagged against rising waters. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
Flood waters rise against Nash's Express convenience store in Hammond, La., Friday, March 11, 2016. Torrential rains pounded northern Louisiana for fourth day Friday, trapping several hundred people in their homes, leaving scores of roads impassable and causing widespread flooding.(AP Photo/Scott Threlkeld)
Flood waters rise around Treasure Hunters Thrift Shop in Hammond, La., Friday, March 11, 2016. Torrential rains pounded northern Louisiana for fourth day Friday, trapping several hundred people in their homes, leaving scores of roads impassable and causing widespread flooding.(AP Photo/Scott Threlkeld)
An Entergy electric truck drives down a flooded street in Hammond, La., Friday, March 11, 2016. Torrential rains pounded northern Louisiana for fourth day Friday, trapping several hundred people in their homes, leaving scores of roads impassable and causing widespread flooding.(AP Photo/Scott Threlkeld)
In this photo released by the Louisiana State Police, vehicles lie in flood water, Wednesday, March 9, 2016, on Interstate-20 near the 55 mile marker near near Dubberly, La. Several parishes in northwest Louisiana have declared a state of emergency over widespread flooding, and the National Guard is being sent in to help. The heavy rain flooded up to 80 homes, causing a nursing home near Minden to be evacuated, some high water rescues and water in the Webster Parish Courthouse. (Louisiana State Police/Col. Mike Edmonson via AP)
Police monitor floodwaters reaching Highway 80 in Haughton, La., Wednesday, March 9, 2016. Severe thunderstorms have caused major flooding and closed all schools in the area. Several parishes in northwest Louisiana have declared a state of emergency over widespread flooding, and the National Guard is being sent in to help. (AP Photo/Mike Silva)
A speed limit sign is nearly covered by floodwaters in the Tall Timbers Haughton, La, subdivision Wednesday, March 9, 2016. Severe thunderstorms have caused major flooding and closed all schools in the area. Several parishes in northwest Louisiana have declared a state of emergency over widespread flooding, and the National Guard is being sent in to help. (AP Photo/Mike Silva)
Louisiana State police help clear the road of debris at the entrance in the Tall Timbers subdivision in Haughton, La. Wednesday March 9, 2016. Severe thunderstorms have caused major flooding and closed all schools in the area. Several parishes in northwest Louisiana have declared a state of emergency over widespread flooding, and the National Guard is being sent in to help. (AP Photo/Mike Silva)
Haughton, La. resident David Stewart takes photos of flooded homes in the Tall Timbers subdivision Wednesday March 9, 2016. Severe thunderstorms have caused major flooding and closed all schools in the area. Several parishes in northwest Louisiana have declared a state of emergency over widespread flooding, and the National Guard is being sent in to help. (AP Photo/Mike Silva)
The lid of a car trunk and the top of a mailbox show how high flood waters have reached in the Tall Timbers subdivision of Haughton , La., Wednesday, March 9, 2016.Severe thunderstorms have caused major flooding and closed all schools in the area. Several parishes in northwest Louisiana have declared a state of emergency over widespread flooding, and the National Guard is being sent in to help. (AP Photo/Mike Silva)
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(LATEST NEWS: Injuries Reported in Minnesota Storms)

The same cold front brought severe weather to northeast Montana on Saturday. Hailstones up to 4 inches in diameter were reported in Wolf Point. A few locations measured wind gusts in excess of 70 mph.

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